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On Thursday, CFRA analyst Catherine Seifert increased the price target for Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR) shares to $320 from the previous $290, while reiterating a Buy rating. According to InvestingPro data, Progressive’s stock is trading near its 52-week high of $287.49, with 13 analysts recently revising their earnings estimates upward. Seifert’s revised target price represents a valuation of Progressive’s shares at 21 times the firm’s estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2026, which is projected at $15.15, and 23.5 times the estimated EPS for 2025, at $13.60. This valuation compares to Progressive’s three-year average forward multiple of 21 times and exceeds the peer average of 12 times.
Seifert forecasts that Progressive will experience operating revenue growth between 15% and 22% in 2025, driven by an expected increase in earned premiums, investment income, and fee income. This projection aligns with the company’s current performance, as InvestingPro data shows revenue growth of 21.36% over the last twelve months, with the company generating $75.34 billion in revenue. The anticipated growth rates for these areas are nearly double the industry average. According to Seifert, Progressive’s unique business mix and distribution platforms are key factors contributing to this growth.
For 2026, revenue growth is anticipated to range from 12% to 18%. Seifert attributes Progressive’s potential for above-peer growth and profitability to its top-tier underwriting and risk management capabilities, which she believes will act as a catalyst and justify the stock’s premium valuation relative to its peers.
In addition to the growth projections, Seifert noted Progressive’s January 2025 results, which included $43 million in California wildfire claims. This figure is significantly lower than the claims reported by many of Progressive’s competitors, underscoring the company’s effective risk management.
In other recent news, Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) reported impressive financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, with a 21% year-over-year increase in net premiums written, totaling $74.4 billion. The company’s combined ratio improved to 88.8, indicating strong underwriting profitability. Progressive also saw an increase of over 5 million new active policies, highlighting its growth in policy numbers. In addition to these financial achievements, Progressive’s advancements in claims technology have enhanced operational efficiency. Jefferies analyst Andrew Andersen raised the price target for Progressive to $319, up from $294, maintaining a Buy rating due to anticipated growth in auto insurance policies. The analyst cited Progressive’s marketing efforts and competitive pricing as key factors for this optimistic outlook. Despite this, Jefferies noted a potential year-over-year deterioration in the auto average yearly loss ratio, reflecting the competitive nature of the insurance market. Progressive remains focused on maintaining a combined ratio below 96 while navigating potential tariff impacts in the coming years.
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