Chipotle stock drops 11% after Q2 miss, Bernstein maintains Outperform

Published 24/07/2025, 15:46
Chipotle stock drops 11% after Q2 miss, Bernstein maintains Outperform

Investing.com - Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) shares fell approximately 11% in after-hours trading following the company’s second-quarter 2025 earnings report that missed analyst expectations. The stock, which has declined 12.47% year-to-date, currently trades above its InvestingPro Fair Value despite maintaining strong fundamentals with a 40.16% gross profit margin.

The fast-casual restaurant chain reported same-store sales growth (SSSG) of -4.0%, below the consensus estimate of -2.9%. Management also revised its full-year same-store sales guidance downward to flat, compared to the low-single-digit growth projected in the previous quarter. Despite the guidance cut, InvestingPro data shows the company maintains healthy financials with a current ratio of 1.65 and revenue growth of 8.57% over the last twelve months.

Bernstein SocGen Group maintained its Outperform rating on Chipotle stock with a $65.00 price target. The firm characterized the market reaction as an "overreaction," suggesting investors are skeptical about the company meeting even its reduced guidance.

Bernstein noted that investors may not fully appreciate Chipotle’s marketing strategy that will drive "more robust spend and ROI" in the second half of 2025. The firm also highlighted potential growth catalysts including increased protein limited-time offerings, catering rollout, and evolved pricing and loyalty programs.

The research firm acknowledged that Chipotle’s management "needs to rebuild its credibility among investors" but believes the revised guidance appears "derisked" and expects acceleration if consumer sentiment improves.

In other recent news, Chipotle Mexican Grill reported its second-quarter 2025 earnings, showcasing a modest earnings per share (EPS) beat with a reported EPS of $0.33, slightly above the forecasted $0.32. However, the company’s revenue was slightly below expectations, coming in at $3.1 billion compared to the anticipated $3.11 billion. Despite this, analysts have maintained their ratings on Chipotle. Bank of America Securities reaffirmed its Buy rating, highlighting the company’s long-term growth potential with a target of 7,000 U.S. locations and 1,000 international restaurants. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) adjusted its price target for Chipotle to $60.00 from $65.00, citing slower-than-expected comparable sales performance, although they maintained an Overweight rating. Citi also lowered its price target to $62.00 from $68.00 while keeping a Buy rating, pointing to near-term challenges but expressing confidence in future improvements. These developments reflect a mixed outlook among analysts, balancing current performance with potential future growth.

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