Citi cuts Helmerich & Payne stock target to $25, maintains Buy

Published 13/05/2025, 10:52
Citi cuts Helmerich & Payne stock target to $25, maintains Buy

On Tuesday, Citi research analysts, led by Scott Gruber, adjusted their outlook on Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP) shares, reducing the price target to $25 from the previous $32 while still holding a Buy rating on the stock. The revision comes as the firm updates its model for the oil and gas drilling company, factoring in a lower U.S. rig count and diminished international margin expectations.

The revised model anticipates a 7% decrease in the firm’s third fiscal quarter EBITDA forecast to $232 million, aligning with the consensus among analysts who have recently updated their expectations. The forecast for fiscal year 2025 EBITDA has also been trimmed by 6% to $875 million, which is consistent with the consensus. This projection is based on an expectation of 145 active rigs in the Lower 48 states with an average daily margin of $18,800 per day, along with an average of 71 active international rigs for the third and fourth fiscal quarters, each generating an average daily margin of $5,000. Despite market challenges, the company maintains a strong dividend track record, having paid dividends for 55 consecutive years, with a current yield of 6.07%.

For fiscal year 2026, Citi projects EBITDA at $821 million, which falls below the consensus estimate of $880 million. The free cash flow (FCF) forecast for fiscal year 2025 is now set at $234 million, surpassing the consensus of $197 million. However, Citi’s FCF forecast for fiscal year 2026 is at $211 million, which is under the consensus estimate of $385 million.

The new $25 price target is based on a roughly 4.5 times multiple of the estimated 2025 enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA), which is below the typical range. The lower multiple reflects the potential for negative revisions due to decreased crude oil prices, according to Gruber’s commentary. Helmerich & Payne is an energy company primarily engaged in the drilling of oil and gas wells for exploration and production companies.

In other recent news, Helmerich & Payne Inc. reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, surpassing Wall Street expectations with an earnings per share of $0.88 against a forecast of $0.66. The company also reported revenue of just over $1 billion, exceeding the anticipated $992.2 million. Despite these positive results, Helmerich & Payne’s stock saw a slight decline of 1.92% in after-hours trading, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty due to fluctuating oil prices. Additionally, the company completed its acquisition of KCA Deutag, which is expected to enhance its long-term growth strategy.

In other developments, JPMorgan analyst Sean Meakim reduced the price target for Helmerich & Payne to $25.00 from $34.00, maintaining a Neutral rating. This adjustment follows a weaker-than-expected forecast for the company’s third-quarter fiscal year 2025 and the suspension of five additional rigs by Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222). Helmerich & Payne announced plans to achieve $50 to $75 million in synergies from its merger with KCA Deutag, exceeding the initial goal of $25 million. The company anticipates maintaining 143 to 149 active rigs in its North America Solutions segment in the June quarter, with a reduced capital budget for fiscal year 2026.

Internationally, Helmerich & Payne is preparing to launch its eighth FlexRig in Saudi Arabia, expecting it to contribute over $25 million in direct margins annually. The company has guided $280 million in selling, general, and administrative expenses and $378 million in capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025. Despite challenges, management remains optimistic about the energy sector’s long-term prospects.

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