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On Friday, Citi analysts adjusted their valuation of Neste Oyj (NESTE:FH) (OTC: NTOIY), a Finnish oil refining and marketing company, by reducing its price target from €16.00 to €11.00, while retaining a Neutral rating on the stock. The revision reflects concerns about the potential impact of new US Administration policies on the biofuel market, particularly for European producers like Neste.
The analysts’ commentary highlighted the recent developments in the United States, which may pose risks to the macro recovery in the biofuel sector. Neste’s Capital Markets Update (CMU) last week mentioned California as a significant opportunity within its sales optimization strategy. However, this week’s events suggest a rollback of favorable amendments to California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), which were enacted last November.
The adjustment in Neste’s stock valuation is a direct result of Citi’s updated financial model for the company, following insights from Neste’s CMU. The revised model includes downgraded forecasts for Neste, leading to a lower target price of €11 per share. The analysts elaborated on their position, stating, "We update our model following Neste’s CMU and revise down our forecasts, this has the effect of lowering our target price to €11/share."
The change in price target by Citi signals a cautious outlook for Neste in the near term, as the company navigates the evolving regulatory landscape and market conditions in the biofuel industry. Neste’s stock performance and future prospects will likely be influenced by both internal corporate strategies and external policy shifts in key markets such as the United States and California.
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