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On Wednesday, Citi analysts made adjustments to their valuation of PBF Energy (NYSE: NYSE:PBF), lowering the price target from $37.00 to $32.00, while keeping their rating at Neutral. The revision comes as the analysts updated their model to reflect the latest commodity prices and ahead of the company's fourth-quarter earnings report, which is scheduled for release on February 13. According to InvestingPro data, PBF Energy's stock has shown resilience with an 11.98% year-to-date return, despite trading near its Fair Value.
The analysts expect PBF Energy to have faced a difficult quarter in the refining sector, citing several headwinds. These include lower margins and capture rates, reduced throughput due to maintenance at the Chalmette refinery, and operational expenditure deleverage. The wholesale commercial (WC) segment is also anticipated to have encountered a challenging environment during this period. InvestingPro data reveals concerning metrics, including a weak gross profit margin of 1.75% and nine analysts revising their earnings estimates downward for the upcoming period.
As a consequence of these factors, Citi analysts forecast a decrease in share repurchases for the quarter, estimating buybacks of approximately $50 million compared to the $75 million executed in the third quarter. The analysts have projected an earnings per share (EPS) loss of $3.26 for PBF Energy, which is the lowest estimate among their peers and falls beneath the consensus estimate of a $2.60 loss per share.
In other recent news, PBF Energy has been the subject of several analyst revisions. Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities downgraded PBF Energy's stock from Neutral to Underperform, lowering the price target from $33 to $31 due to expected weaker refining margins. The firm predicts a significant shortfall in the company's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and earnings per share (EPS). Similarly, TD Cowen downgraded PBF Energy from a Hold to a Sell status, reducing the price target from $27.00 to $20.00, citing challenges from West Coast renewable diesel imports and weak light/heavy differentials.
The company also reported an adjusted net loss of $1.50 per share and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $60.1 million for the third quarter of 2024. Despite these losses, PBF Energy announced a 10% increase in its dividend, demonstrating confidence in its financial stability.
In addition to these developments, PBF Energy disclosed new compensatory arrangements for its executive officers as part of its long-term incentive plan, which includes a mix of restricted stock, performance share units, and performance units.
The company also revealed plans for capital expenditures for 2025 to be between $750 million to $800 million and is targeting $200 million in run rate cash savings by the end of 2025. These recent developments highlight the ongoing changes within PBF Energy.
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