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On Friday, Citi analysts adjusted their outlook on UMB Financial (NASDAQ:UMBF), reducing the price target from $127.00 to $109.00 while maintaining a Neutral rating on the stock. The revision was influenced by a cautious stance on the company’s pro forma credit profile, particularly following the downgrade of Heartland and an unexpected rise in Commercial & Industrial Net Charge-Offs (C&I NCOs).
The analysts observed that UMB Financial’s core Pre-Provision Net Revenue (PPNR) results were slightly above previous estimates. Despite this, they expressed concern over the company’s credit profile, with recent developments leading to increased caution. The downgrade to neutral on Heartland, which had previously been a point of concern regarding commercial real estate, added to the analysts’ reservations as they were surprised by the uptick in C&I NCOs.
Operationally, UMB Financial’s deposit franchise was deemed healthy by Citi analysts. However, they noted that the company would need further Federal Reserve rate cuts to significantly reduce funding costs. This limitation is expected to cap any substantial Net Interest Margin (NIM) improvement through the year without Federal Reserve intervention.
The analysts also highlighted that the elevated level of growth and credit risk, associated with both the integration of Heartland and macroeconomic uncertainty, could hinder UMB Financial’s valuation expansion relative to its peers. They believe that until the core operations demonstrate resilience in the upcoming quarters, a valuation increase is less probable.
In light of these factors, Citi analysts have trimmed their Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates for UMB Financial. The new price target of $109 reflects the elevated trend in Net Charge-Offs, a modestly lower growth outlook in the near term, and the reinvestment of cost synergies from the deal.
In other recent news, UMB Financial Corporation reported its first quarter 2025 earnings, surpassing analysts’ expectations. The company achieved an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.58, exceeding the forecasted $2.26. Revenue also outperformed projections, coming in at $563.84 million compared to the expected $547.66 million. UMB Financial’s performance was bolstered by the completion of the Heartland acquisition, contributing to significant growth in average loans and deposits, which rose by 27.8% and 32.3%, respectively. The company also reported an improved operating efficiency ratio of 55.6%.
Despite these positive results, UMB Financial’s stock fell by 3% in after-hours trading. The decline may reflect broader market trends or investor concerns about future growth prospects. The company remains focused on integrating Heartland and realizing cost synergies, which are expected to be a key focus in the upcoming quarters. Looking ahead, UMB Financial anticipates a core net interest margin between 2.75% and 2.80% for the second quarter and plans to manage operating expenses around $375 million for the full year 2025. The company’s strategic initiatives and operational efficiency continue to drive its robust performance.
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