Citi maintains neutral Brown Forman stock with $35 target

Published 30/05/2025, 11:58
Citi maintains neutral Brown Forman stock with $35 target

On Friday, Citi reaffirmed its neutral stance on Brown Forman (NYSE:BFb) (NYSE:BF-B) shares, maintaining a price target of $35.00. The research firm anticipates the company to reveal its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on June 5, with an expected Organic Sales Growth (OSG) of +2.9%, which is below the Visible Alpha consensus of +4.1%. Brown Forman is likely to experience softer underlying sales, with a predicted decline of -1.4%, influenced by subdued consumer purchasing patterns in the United States, which accounts for approximately 45% of its sales, as well as in Developed International markets.

According to Citi, sales trends in the U.S. have been particularly weak based on February and March data from Nielsen and NABCA, despite a slight improvement in April due to the Easter calendar shift. The firm forecasts a Gross Margin (GM) increase of +55 basis points, benefiting from the cycling of the previous year’s LIFO impact, and operational margin (OM) advantages stemming from reduced SG&A expenses due to Brown Forman’s restructuring initiatives.

For fiscal year 2026, Brown Forman is expected to project an OSG of +1-3% and an organic Operating Income (OI) growth of +2-4%. However, Citi suggests that the market may be skeptical about the company’s ability to meet these targets given the current weak underlying trends. Consequently, Citi has revised its own FY26 OSG estimate down to +1.2% from +3.1%, which is also below the Visible Alpha consensus of +2.6%. The firm has also adjusted its Earnings Per Share (EPS) forecast to $1.82 from $1.84, which was the FactSet consensus. The neutral rating reflects Citi’s cautious outlook on Brown Forman’s stock performance.

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