Citi raises Match Group stock price target to $34

On Thursday, Citi analysts updated their stance on Match Group (NASDAQ:MTCH), increasing the price target to $34.00 from $32.00, while keeping a Neutral rating on the shares. The dating app giant, currently generating $3.48 billion in annual revenue with a robust 71.5% gross margin, saw its guidance miss for the first quarter of 2025 primarily due to foreign exchange (FX) headwinds, falling short of Wall Street’s profitability expectations. According to InvestingPro data, three analysts have recently revised their earnings expectations downward for the upcoming period.

Citi analysts pointed out that Match Group’s performance did not reveal any significant new developments since its December Investor Day. The guidance miss was attributed to incremental FX challenges, but the first quarter results were notably below the expectations set by analysts, particularly concerning profitability. Discover deeper insights into Match Group’s financial health and growth potential with InvestingPro, which offers exclusive analysis and over 30 premium financial metrics.

Match Group’s flagship app, Tinder, has shown only slight improvements in monthly active users (MAUs). Analysts at Citi believe that substantial progress is necessary to achieve the company’s projected growth in the second half of 2025 and into 2026. The report highlighted skepticism, as this is not the first instance where Match Group management has anticipated accelerating trends in the near future.

The analysts expressed optimism about the appointment of Spencer Rascoff as the new CEO, citing his strong product background and successful history as an Internet CEO. However, they also recognized the significant effort required to revitalize Tinder.

In conclusion, Citi analysts consider Match Group shares to be fairly valued at approximately 9 times the estimated 2026 EBITDA. This valuation reflects their outlook on Tinder and the current lack of clarity regarding the timeline for improvements.

In other recent news, Match Group experienced a series of developments. JPMorgan maintained a Neutral rating on the company with a $33 target, noting the company met investor day expectations and reported positive growth trends on Tinder. However, they also highlighted the need for revenue increase throughout the year to meet Wall Street estimates. Barclays (LON:BARC), on the other hand, cut Match Group’s target to $52 but maintained an Overweight rating. They noted a shortfall in earnings and Tinder subscribers but expressed cautious optimism due to the new CEO, Spencer Rascoff’s growth-focused approach.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) raised Match Group’s stock price target to $33, observing a cautiously optimistic view following the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report. They highlighted a positive direction in Tinder’s monthly active users but suggested the stock might stay within a certain trading range in the near term. Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James maintained a Market Perform rating on Match Group, noting challenges with Tinder’s user growth and the impact of iOS platform changes.

Finally, BofA Securities maintained its Neutral rating on Match Group with a $36 target. They recognized the company’s fourth-quarter revenue of $860 million, surpassing Wall Street’s expectations, but falling short on EBITDA due to increased operational expenses. They also noted the company’s initiatives, such as "First Impressions," are progressing as planned. These recent developments provide a snapshot of Match Group’s current standing in the market.

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