Dow stock price target lowered to $26 by RBC on weak outlook

Published 27/07/2025, 00:50
Dow stock price target lowered to $26 by RBC on weak outlook

Investing.com - RBC Capital has lowered its price target on Dow Inc. (NYSE:DOW) to $26.00 from $30.00 while maintaining a Sector Perform rating, citing a weak earnings outlook. The stock, currently trading at $25.51, sits near its 52-week low of $24.37, with InvestingPro data showing 9 analysts recently revising their earnings estimates downward.

The firm expressed concerns about Dow’s optimistic polyethylene price assumptions of +5-7 cents per pound in July, suggesting these targets might be difficult to achieve in the current market environment.

RBC does not anticipate a significant improvement in Dow’s performance during the second half of 2025, noting that export volumes could face continued pressure due to tariffs.

While the company’s recent dividend reduction wasn’t unexpected, RBC indicated that some investors might have thought other measures—such as delaying the Alberta project, implementing European shutdowns, and the NOVA judgment—would have been sufficient in the near term.

The firm has reduced its EBITDA estimates for Dow to $800 million for Q3 2025, $3.15 billion for full-year 2025, and $3.60 billion for 2026, down from previous estimates of $1.03 billion, $3.85 billion, and $4.70 billion respectively, while applying a higher 8.0x multiple (up from 7.5x) to account for trough-level EBITDA.

In other recent news, Dow Inc. announced a significant reduction in its quarterly dividend, cutting it by 50% to 35 cents per share. This decision was attributed to a challenging macroeconomic environment and a prolonged industry downturn. Moody’s Ratings downgraded Dow’s senior unsecured credit rating to Baa2 from Baa1, citing depressed earnings and governance concerns, with a negative outlook. Evercore ISI also downgraded Dow from Outperform to In Line, expressing concerns over the company’s financial outlook following the dividend cut. Additionally, BofA Securities reiterated its Underperform rating on Dow, maintaining a price target of $27.00, following Dow’s announcement of closing three European facilities. These closures, impacting 800 roles, are part of Dow’s response to structural challenges in the region. The company expects these shutdowns to contribute a $200 million EBITDA uplift by 2029.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.