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On Wednesday, TD Cowen adjusted its outlook on Elastic NV (NYSE:ESTC), reducing the price target from $125.00 to $105.00, while sustaining a Hold rating on the company’s shares. The adjustment comes ahead of Elastic’s financial report scheduled for May 29, where the focus is anticipated to be on the company’s guidance for FY26. The company, currently valued at $9.49 billion, appears fairly valued according to InvestingPro Fair Value metrics, with analyst targets ranging from $75 to $160 per share.
Analysts at TD Cowen project a Cloud growth of 23% for Elastic, which is consistent with market expectations, and foresee a slight beat in the upcoming report. This outlook aligns with the company’s strong revenue growth of 17.95% over the last twelve months. However, there is a cautious stance regarding the FY26 guidance, which is expected to be slightly below the consensus estimate of 14%. This forecast takes into account the recent appointment of a new CFO and the current macroeconomic environment. InvestingPro data shows the company maintains a GOOD financial health score, with 22 analysts recently revising earnings estimates upward.
The firm’s partner survey indicated an improvement, with 86% of partners meeting or exceeding expectations compared to 77% in the previous quarter. Despite this positive sentiment, conversations with partners revealed a cautious outlook, including concerns about government customers.
Elastic’s stock has seen a significant recovery, with shares climbing 28% from their low point. This recent increase in share price is said to create a more challenging scenario for the company moving forward.
Investors and market watchers will be paying close attention to Elastic’s performance in the upcoming earnings report and the subsequent guidance for the fiscal year 2026, as these will provide clearer indications of the company’s trajectory in the face of current market conditions.
In other recent news, Elastic NV reported third-quarter results for fiscal year 2025 that exceeded expectations, prompting Truist Securities to raise its price target from $135 to $145 while maintaining a Buy rating. The company experienced increased demand for its search capabilities and Generative AI use cases, particularly among larger cloud customers. Elastic’s management has adjusted its fiscal year outlook upward, although they remain cautious about future developments. Stifel analysts also reiterated a Buy rating for Elastic, with a price target of $140, noting improved go-to-market execution and strong consumption trends. However, they expressed caution regarding uncertainties in federal spending and economic impacts on consumption trends.
In a strategic move, Elastic announced a partnership with Tines to enhance security and observability workflow automation, which has already benefited organizations like the Texas A&M System Cyber Operations. The collaboration aims to improve security orchestration and response times, thereby reducing costs and workload for security teams. Additionally, DA Davidson maintained a Neutral rating on Elastic with a $115 price target, highlighting strong quarterly performance and improved operating margins due to consolidation trends and Generative AI interest. The appointment of Navam Welihinda as the new CFO is seen as a significant development for Elastic. The company’s ongoing operational efficiency and strategic partnerships position it for potential growth, despite macroeconomic challenges.
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