Ellington shares rise as Keefe raises price target to $14.50

Published 03/03/2025, 15:34
Ellington shares rise as Keefe raises price target to $14.50

On Monday, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Bose T. George increased the price target on Ellington Financial Inc. (NYSE:EFC) shares to $14.50, up from the previous target of $13.75. The analyst sustained an Outperform rating for the company’s stock. George’s decision to raise the price target is based on a valuation that now assumes a price-to-book multiple of approximately 1.1 times, an increase from the earlier 1x multiple. The upgrade reflects confidence in Ellington’s stable book value, robust mortgage banking operations, including Longbridge and Non-QM, and consistent returns that support the company’s dividend.

Ellington Financial’s stable performance and strong business divisions have led to this positive outlook. The analyst has maintained the forward fiscal year 2025 and 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimates at $1.56 and $1.72 respectively and introduced a new estimate for fiscal year 2027 at $1.72. These projections correspond to return on equities (ROEs) of 11.5% for 2025 and approximately 12.5% for both 2026 and 2027. The management of Ellington Financial has indicated that the current $0.39 dividend is well-covered with an 11.5% breakeven ROE. Notably, InvestingPro data shows the company has maintained dividend payments for 16 consecutive years, with a current attractive yield of 10.87%.

The update from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods comes after Ellington Financial’s shares experienced a significant increase on Friday, closing the day up 7.5%. The stock was trading at 1.05 times book value at the end of the week, with an attractive dividend yield of 11%. Based on these metrics and the solid foundation of the company’s business, the analyst has reiterated an Outperform rating, signaling a positive outlook for Ellington Financial’s stock in the market.

In other recent news, Ellington Financial LLC reported its fourth-quarter results for 2024, showcasing a strong performance with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45, exceeding the forecast of $0.39. However, the company faced a revenue shortfall, reporting $71.97 million against an expected $76.83 million. Despite the revenue miss, Ellington Financial’s strategic focus on diversified investments and securitization contributed to its positive earnings surprise. The credit portfolio and Longbridge segment emerged as key contributors to the company’s financial results, with net incomes of $0.32 and $0.30 per share, respectively. Analysts from firms like UBS and BTIG have been closely monitoring the company’s performance, particularly noting the robust results from the Longbridge segment. The company remains committed to expanding its securitization efforts and maintaining its dividend coverage. In addition, Ellington Financial is exploring new senior-focused financial products to continue its growth trajectory.

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