Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac shares tumble after conservatorship comments
On Wednesday, Evercore ISI analyst Elizabeth Anderson downgraded Health Catalyst Inc. (NASDAQ:HCAT) stock from Outperform to In Line, adjusting the price target to $4.00 from the previous $6.00. The stock, currently trading at $3.82, has fallen over 50% in the past six months and is trading near its 52-week low of $3.72. According to InvestingPro analysis, the company appears undervalued at current levels. The downgrade reflects concerns about potential headwinds that could affect the company's revenue and EBITDA projections for 2025 and beyond.
Anderson noted that despite the pullback in Health Catalyst's valuation year-to-date, there are several factors prompting a more cautious stance. While InvestingPro data shows the company maintains a moderate gross profit margin of 46.25% and achieved 3.6% revenue growth in the last twelve months, there are operational challenges. These include short-term issues with the company's ambulatory TEMS pilot, which is not profitable and is being exited by HCAT. This move is expected to benefit the second half of the year's EBITDA, but the first quarter may experience some volatility due to timing.
Additionally, the introduction of 10 new platform additions in the first quarter is anticipated to initially create a margin drag, particularly in the first quarter, but this is projected to improve over time. Anderson also mentioned that hospital IT spending trends are still positive, albeit moderated from their peaks in the third and fourth quarters.
Looking further ahead, there are concerns about potential challenges in 2025 and 2026, including possible reduced Medicaid coverage and the impact of increased medical supply and pharmaceutical dispensing costs due to recently updated tariffs. These factors are expected to primarily affect revenue, but Anderson pointed out possible EBITDA offsets from Ignite migrations, TEMS margin improvement, and some operational expenditure leverage.
The revised price target of $4.00 is based on 8x the 2025 EBITDA estimate. Health Catalyst's decision to exit the ambulatory TEMS pilot is part of the company's efforts to improve its EBITDA in the latter half of the year, although the first quarter might see some disruptions related to the transition. Despite these challenges, the long-term outlook for hospital IT spending remains generally favorable.
In other recent news, Health Catalyst Inc. has reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, revealing a significant earnings miss with an EPS of -$0.33 against a forecast of $0.07. The company's revenue for the quarter was $79.6 million, slightly below the expected $80.68 million. Despite these figures, Health Catalyst's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter saw a remarkable year-over-year increase of 485% to $7.9 million. Analysts at BTIG have revised the price target for Health Catalyst shares, reducing it to $10 from $13, while maintaining a Buy rating. Additionally, Health Catalyst has repurchased approximately $5 million worth of its common stock as part of a previously approved program, demonstrating its commitment to generating value for shareholders.
The company has also made strategic moves, including the acquisition of Upfront Healthcare, which resulted in a 10% stock dilution. Analysts from William Blair have reiterated an Outperform rating on Health Catalyst shares, despite concerns about hospital capital investment budgets. They highlighted the potential of the company's Ignite data and analytics platform, which has been driving high-margin technology sales. Health Catalyst's management is optimistic about future growth, with expectations for technology revenue to grow by approximately 13% year-over-year in 2025. The company has reaffirmed its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2025, projecting around $335 million.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.