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TD Securities downgraded Gibson Energy (TSX:GEI) (OTC:GBNXF) from Buy to Hold on Monday, while raising its price target to C$25.00 from C$24.00. The firm cited that its previous investment thesis, which anticipated value recognition for marketing normalization and 2025 capital spending growth, has now materialized.
The downgrade follows TD Securities’ previous upgrade to Buy after Gibson’s fourth-quarter 2024 weakness, when the firm believed investors weren’t properly accounting for a recovery in marketing and significant volume increases at the Gateway facility expected in 2026. Gibson currently trades at a 2026 estimated EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.5x, close to its 10-year mean of 10.0x.
TD Securities’ updated estimates include a 7.5% year-over-year increase in Gibson’s Infrastructure segment EBITDA, reflecting approximately 20% higher Gateway volumes from 2024 levels due to dredging and Cactus (NYSE:WHD) II projects. The firm expects the marketing segment to return to the lower end of its base guidance range.
For the marketing segment, TD Securities forecasts $80 million in performance, representing a substantial recovery from Gibson’s 2025 guidance of $20 million to $40 million. This would bring the segment back to the lower boundary of what Gibson considers its base range of $80 million to $120 million.
The price target increase to C$25.00 comes despite the rating downgrade, suggesting TD Securities still sees some upside potential for Gibson shares while believing the stock has now captured much of the value opportunity that prompted their previous Buy rating.
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