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On Monday, Guggenheim Securities adjusted its price target for Inventiva SA (NASDAQ:IVA) shares, reducing it from $12.00 to $9.00, while reiterating a Buy rating on the stock. Currently trading at $3.02, the stock has shown remarkable momentum with a 61% surge over the past six months, according to InvestingPro data. The revision follows the completion of patient enrollment for the NATiV3 trial, which is a significant step towards a second-half of 2026 topline data readout. The trial has enrolled 1,009 patients in the main cohort, surpassing the initial target of 969 patients, and 410 patients in the exploratory cohort, also exceeding the target of 350 patients. With a market capitalization of $271 million, Inventiva faces significant milestones ahead. InvestingPro analysis reveals analyst price targets ranging from $3 to $20, suggesting substantial upside potential if the trial succeeds.
According to Guggenheim analysts, Inventiva’s progress allows the company to access the second tranche of financing. This financial milestone is crucial as the company prepares for the forthcoming data release. The analysts remain optimistic about Inventiva’s treatment, lanifibranor (lani), which they consider to be a potentially superior oral therapy for patients with MASH fibrosis and those with type 2 diabetes (T2D).
The positive outlook is based on several factors, including lani’s potent anti-fibrotic effects and encouraging blinded data from ongoing trials. Approximately 545 patients have been treated for six months, and around 119 patients for 18 months, with results that replicate biomarker outcomes from the Phase 2b NATIVE study, according to management. Additionally, the lack of bone mineral density (BMD) impact is viewed as a potential competitive advantage for lani.
The NATiV3 trial design has also been commended for its low dropout rates, which are below the threshold for the second tranche of financing, and the trial has proceeded without protocol modifications following a February Data Monitoring Committee (DMC) review of over 1,200 patients.
Guggenheim’s updated model for Inventiva factors in current market trends and pricing in the MASH sector, balanced against increased marketing expenditures and a fully diluted share count as per the company’s Structured Financing agreement. Despite the reduced price target, Guggenheim’s analysts continue to recommend Inventiva as a Buy for long-term investors, signaling confidence in the company’s prospects and the potential of its lead treatment candidate. While InvestingPro data indicates a WEAK financial health score and declining revenues (-36% year-over-year), investors should note the upcoming earnings report on May 23, 2025, which could provide crucial updates on the company’s progress. InvestingPro subscribers have access to 6 additional key insights about Inventiva’s financial position and growth prospects.
In other recent news, Inventiva SA has successfully completed patient enrollment for its Phase 3 NATiV3 trial, exceeding its initial target with 1,009 patients in the main cohort and an additional 410 in an exploratory cohort. This trial focuses on lanifibranor for the treatment of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). The completion of enrollment ahead of schedule supports the conditions for a second tranche of approximately €116 million in structured financing, which is crucial for extending Inventiva’s cash runway to the third quarter of 2026. Stifel analysts have reiterated their Buy rating for Inventiva shares, maintaining a price target of $17.00. The analysts’ optimism is based on positive safety reviews and interim data showing improving trends on key biomarkers. The NATiV3 trial is anticipated to replicate the successful results of the earlier Phase 2b NATIVE trial, with topline results expected in the second half of 2026. Inventiva’s recent achievements mark a significant milestone in its clinical development efforts, as the company aims to address the unmet medical need for MASH treatment.
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