Guggenheim cuts MongoDB target to $235, maintains Buy rating

Published 28/05/2025, 12:58
Guggenheim cuts MongoDB target to $235, maintains Buy rating

On Wednesday, Guggenheim analyst Howard Ma revised the price target for MongoDB stock (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MDB) to $235 from the previous $300, while still affirming a Buy rating on the shares. Currently trading at $188.95, MongoDB maintains a "Fair" financial health score according to InvestingPro analysis. The adjustment comes as Ma expressed caution ahead of MongoDB’s F1Q26 earnings announcement scheduled for June 4th, citing slow consumption growth year-to-date through April, attributed to increased competition in the database market.

Despite the tempered growth expectations, Ma believes the guidance provided for F1Q total revenue growth of 16-17% is conservative, as is the full-year projection of 12-14% growth. This outlook follows MongoDB’s impressive 19.2% revenue growth over the last twelve months, reaching $2 billion. He anticipates a modest 1% upside to F1Q Atlas revenue, projecting $393 million, which represents a 25% year-over-year increase, versus the consensus of $390 million or 24% growth. Additionally, Ma expects more significant upside to non-Atlas revenue, predicting a 6% increase compared to the consensus of a 1% decline, though he notes this segment is more challenging to forecast.

For the second quarter, Ma anticipates that MongoDB will at least meet consensus expectations for total revenue of $549 million, marking a 15% increase. He also expects the company to maintain its full-year guidance for both revenue and margins, with the latter potentially remaining flat year-over-year at approximately 15%. Addressing concerns regarding the lack of guidance reiteration following the appointment of Mike Berry as the new CFO effective May 27th, Ma does not foresee any risk to guidance, similar to the previous fiscal year’s adjustment.

Despite lowering the price target due to reduced long-term forecasts, Ma suggests that the execution of strategic initiatives could lead to further upside for MongoDB. He points out that MongoDB’s stock has fallen 29% since the last earnings report and 44% over the past year, contrasting with the IGV index, which has risen 7% and 26%, respectively. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets range from $160 to $430, with a consensus recommendation leaning towards Buy. The stock currently appears undervalued based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis. For deeper insights into MongoDB’s valuation and growth prospects, including 8 additional ProTips and comprehensive financial metrics, visit InvestingPro.

In other recent news, MongoDB has announced the appointment of Mike Berry as its new Chief Financial Officer, effective May 27, 2025. This strategic move comes as the company prepares to release its first-quarter fiscal year 2026 financial results on June 4, 2025. Analysts from RBC Capital maintain an optimistic outlook, reiterating an Outperform rating and a $320 price target, expecting strong results driven by a 27% growth in Atlas subscriptions. In contrast, UBS analyst Karl Keirstead adjusted the price target for MongoDB to $213 from $250, maintaining a Neutral rating amidst concerns about long-term industry trends. Meanwhile, Scotiabank (TSX:BNS)’s Patrick Colville reduced the price target to $160, citing competitive pressures and a cautious stance on market traction.

Furthermore, MongoDB recently faced a leadership change with the resignation of Interim CFO Srdjan Tanjga, who will join Appian (NASDAQ:APPN) Corporation as CFO. The company reassured stakeholders that the search for a new CFO is nearing completion. Investors are keenly awaiting the upcoming earnings report and the announcement of the new CFO, which are expected to influence MongoDB’s strategic direction and investor confidence. These developments highlight the dynamic environment MongoDB is navigating, with varying analyst expectations and strategic leadership changes shaping its future trajectory.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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