HCA Healthcare stock price target raised to $475 by KeyBanc

Investing.com - KeyBanc raised its price target on HCA Healthcare Inc (NYSE:HCA) to $475.00 from $465.00 on Monday, while maintaining an Overweight rating on the healthcare provider’s stock. The new target aligns with broader analyst sentiment, as InvestingPro data shows analyst targets ranging from $333 to $495, with the stock currently trading near its 52-week high.

The price target increase follows HCA Healthcare’s third-quarter results, which KeyBanc described as "solid" with an 11% EBITDA beat. The strong performance was supported by Medicaid Supplemental Directed Payments (SDPs) and sequentially stronger patient volumes. This momentum builds on the company’s impressive $72.7 billion in revenue and $14.5 billion in EBITDA over the last twelve months.

KeyBanc projects that HCA could achieve more than $16.1 billion in EBITDA for 2026, compared to the Street consensus of approximately $15.5 billion, assuming Healthcare Insurance Exchange (HIX) subsidies are extended and Florida’s SDP is approved.

The firm noted that future SDPs and potential benefits from HCA’s resiliency programs may provide additional upside for the company beyond current projections.

While acknowledging that HCA’s valuation is elevated and EBITDA growth could face pressure starting around 2028 due to OBBB cuts, KeyBanc highlighted that the EBITDA baseline continues to move higher and the overall utilization backdrop remains favorable for the company.

In other recent news, HCA Healthcare reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, surpassing analysts’ expectations in both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company posted a diluted EPS of $6.96, significantly higher than the forecasted $5.72, and revenue reached $19.16 billion, exceeding the anticipated $18.56 billion. Additionally, HCA Healthcare’s adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $3,870 million, approximately 12% above consensus estimates. Mizuho raised its price target for HCA Healthcare to $505, maintaining an Outperform rating, while Leerink Partners increased their target to $470, also with an Outperform rating. Both firms cited strong outlooks and improved performance metrics as reasons for their adjustments.

HCA Healthcare also announced a proposal for a senior notes offering, with proceeds potentially being used to manage debt, including repaying outstanding borrowings and redeeming existing senior notes. Bernstein SocGen Group reiterated its Market Perform rating with a $417 price target, reflecting a more cautious stance compared to other firms. These developments highlight HCA Healthcare’s strong financial position and ongoing strategic financial management efforts.

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