Humana maintains neutral rating at UBS despite strong earnings outlook

Published 17/06/2025, 15:32
Humana maintains neutral rating at UBS despite strong earnings outlook

UBS maintained its neutral rating and $285.00 price target on Humana stock (NYSE: NYSE:HUM) following the company’s investor day at its Louisville, Kentucky headquarters. Currently trading at $243.57, InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is undervalued, with analyst targets ranging from $244 to $402. The health insurer outlined a framework suggesting earnings per share could reach $36-44 by 2028, significantly higher than current UBS and consensus estimates of $23.00 and $26.28, respectively.

Humana’s long-term earnings bridge from 2025-2028 includes projected growth of $1.0-1.4 billion from Individual Medicare Advantage earnings and $0.3-0.4 billion from growth businesses including Medicaid and Centerwell. The company expects an additional $0.4-0.6 billion from other business lines and $1.6-2.0 billion from enterprise operating leverage. With a strong financial health score rated as "GREAT" by InvestingPro, and maintaining dividend payments for 15 consecutive years, Humana demonstrates solid operational execution.

The insurer indicated more than half of its operating leverage would come from cost reductions, with the remainder derived from revenue growth. Humana also projects achieving top quartile Stars performance in 2028, translating to Stars revenue per member per month approximately 10% above peer group levels, despite facing Stars headwinds in 2026 and 2027.

UBS noted that while Humana’s earnings power framework helps outline future opportunities, several questions remain unresolved. These include 2026 bidding strategy, competitive dynamics, and utilization trends that could impact the company’s ability to achieve its targets.

The firm’s neutral stance reflects these uncertainties despite Humana’s optimistic long-term outlook, which would represent substantial growth from current earnings levels if achieved by 2028.

In other recent news, Humana has outlined a potential path to achieving $36-44 in earnings per share (EPS) by 2028, as shared during its Investor Day event. The company expects significant growth from Individual Medicare Advantage and other business segments, projecting earnings increases of up to $1.4 billion from the former and up to $0.6 billion from other lines. UBS maintained a Neutral rating with a $285.00 price target, noting that while the earnings framework is promising, questions about future strategies remain. Meanwhile, Truist Securities lowered its price target for Humana to $280.00, citing a lower assumed multiple but maintaining a Hold rating. Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) reiterated an Outperform rating with a $316.00 price target, highlighting confidence in Humana’s long-term strategy despite a projected earnings dip in 2026. Cantor Fitzgerald also maintained a Neutral rating with a $290.00 price target, noting that Medicare Advantage cuts were excluded from current legislative discussions, which is favorable for Humana. The exclusion of these cuts is seen as a positive development for companies with large Medicare Advantage operations, including Humana. These recent developments reflect varied analyst perspectives on Humana’s growth trajectory and financial outlook.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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