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Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) reiterated an Outperform rating and $316.00 price target on Humana (NYSE: NYSE:HUM) following the company’s Investor Day on Tuesday. The health insurer, currently trading at $235.39 with a market capitalization of $28.4 billion, outlined its pathway to reach approximately $40.00 in adjusted earnings per share by 2028, significantly higher than the current consensus estimate of $30.85. According to InvestingPro analysis, Humana appears undervalued relative to its Fair Value, aligning with Mizuho’s bullish outlook.
Humana’s long-term growth strategy centers on margin recovery in its Medicare Advantage business, strategic expansion in Medicaid and CenterWell services, and enterprise-wide operating leverage. The company, which has demonstrated solid financial health with a GREAT overall score according to InvestingPro metrics, maintained its previous guidance that 2026 adjusted earnings will decline compared to 2025 due to Medicare Advantage Stars results, with improvement expected in 2027. InvestingPro data shows the company has maintained dividend payments for 15 consecutive years, highlighting its financial stability despite near-term challenges.
The company projects 2028 as a pivotal year when Medicare Advantage margins should expand back to historical norms. Mizuho characterized Humana’s commentary regarding 2026 and 2027 as "prudent but conservative," noting it excludes potential positive factors such as trend improvement, favorable lawsuit outcomes, or improved Medicare Advantage Star Rating cut points.
Humana indicated that its 2025 trends continue to track in line with expectations. The detailed financial roadmap presented at the Investor Day was received positively by Mizuho, which described the overall tone of the event as positive.
Mizuho’s maintained Outperform rating suggests continued confidence in Humana’s long-term strategy despite the projected near-term earnings decline in 2026. The $316.00 price target reflects the firm’s outlook on Humana’s growth trajectory through 2028.
In other recent news, Humana has been the focus of several key developments. The company is navigating ongoing legislative discussions, with Medicare Advantage cuts notably absent from a bill under consideration, a move seen as favorable for Humana. Cantor Fitzgerald maintained its Neutral rating on Humana, reflecting a balanced view of the company’s near-term prospects. Meanwhile, CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) also benefited from legislative changes, as Medicare Pharmacy Benefit Manager limits were removed from a tax bill, reducing regulatory pressure on the sector.
Humana’s CEO, Jim Rechtin, disclosed that the company is planning its business strategy with the assumption that it will lose its ongoing stars lawsuit, affecting its Medicare Advantage segment. Bernstein SocGen Group reiterated an Outperform rating on Humana, suggesting the company’s investor day might highlight positive catalysts for its Medicare Advantage business. However, Jefferies analysts lowered their price target for Humana to $244.00, citing margin pressures and ongoing challenges in the Medicare Advantage market. Despite these challenges, Jefferies maintains a Hold rating on the stock, noting potential discussions on Risk Adjustment Factor regulation.
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