Jefferies maintains Hold on Honeywell stock amid cautious short-cycle outlook

Published 04/08/2025, 17:50
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Investing.com - Jefferies has reiterated its Hold rating on Honeywell International (NASDAQ:HON) with a price target of $240.00, expressing caution about positive short-cycle momentum heading into the second half of 2025. The industrial conglomerate, with a market capitalization of $139 billion, is currently trading near its InvestingPro Fair Value, while maintaining relatively low price volatility.

Honeywell raised its 2025 organic revenue guidance by 2 percentage points, led by Building Automation (BA) which was upgraded to mid-to-high single-digit growth from mid-single digits previously, and Industrial Automation (IA) which improved to low-to-mid-single-digit decline from mid-single-digit decline. The company’s revenue reached $39.99 billion in the last twelve months, with a solid gross profit margin of 38.1%.

The guidance upgrade follows year-to-date short-cycle improvement, with Building Automation up 8% in the first half and Industrial Automation down just 2%, though management remains cautious about whether this momentum will continue through the second half.

Jefferies has revised its estimates for Industrial Automation to a 2% organic decline versus its previous 4% decline forecast, while Building Automation estimates moved to 9% growth from 5% previously, driven by continued strength in the U.S. market.

Aerospace estimates remain unchanged at 10% organic growth, despite lower Commercial Original Equipment expectations (now +16% versus +23% previously) being offset by higher Defense forecasts (now +9% versus +6%), while Energy & Sustainability Solutions revenue projections were reduced to flat year-over-year from 2% growth due to delays in large energy projects.

In other recent news, Resideo Technologies (NYSE:REZI), Inc. has announced a significant financial maneuver by eliminating future payment obligations to Honeywell International Inc. Resideo will make a one-time cash payment of $1.59 billion to Honeywell in the third quarter of 2025, which will terminate annual payments of up to $140 million that were initially scheduled to continue through 2043. Additionally, Resideo plans to separate its ADI Global Distribution business through a tax-free spin-off, creating two independent public companies by the second half of 2026. The Products & Solutions business will continue under the Resideo name, while ADI will become a standalone entity.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan has raised its price target for Honeywell International to $222, citing strong quarterly results that exceeded analyst expectations. Honeywell reported second-quarter 2025 earnings with an adjusted EPS of $2.75, surpassing the forecast of $2.66. Revenue also came in higher than anticipated, reaching $10.4 billion compared to the expected $10.05 billion. Despite this positive financial performance, Honeywell’s stock experienced a decline in pre-market trading, which analysts attribute to broader market uncertainty.

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