JMP maintains MFA Financial stock $12.50 target, upbeat on value

Published 26/03/2025, 10:00
JMP maintains MFA Financial stock $12.50 target, upbeat on value

On Wednesday, JMP Securities analysts maintained a positive stance on MFA Financial Inc . (NYSE:MFA), reiterating their Market Outperform rating with a steady price target of $12.50. The firm’s analysts expressed continued confidence in the company as a leading value proposition within the residential mortgage credit REIT sector. This aligns with InvestingPro analysis, which indicates MFA is currently trading below its Fair Value, with a strong financial health score of 2.7 out of 5.

MFA Financial reported robust earnings for the fourth quarter of 2024 on February 19, posting distributable earnings per share (EPS) of $0.39. This figure surpassed the third quarter’s EPS of $0.37 and exceeded the current quarterly dividend of $0.36, which had recently been increased from $0.35. Despite being a cent short of the $0.40 consensus estimate, the company’s results were favorably received. InvestingPro data reveals the company maintains an impressive 13.3% dividend yield and has sustained dividend payments for 28 consecutive years, demonstrating consistent shareholder returns.

The economic book value (EBV) of MFA Financial was recorded at $13.93 per share at the end of the fourth quarter, marking a 3.7% decrease from the $14.46 book value reported on September 30. However, this was still 1.0% higher than JMP Securities’ anticipated book value of $13.79 per share. The slight decline in book value, coupled with the dividend distribution, led to a total economic return (TER) of -1.2% for the quarter. Despite this, MFA Financial achieved a solid +5.2% TER for the entire year of 2024.

The analysts highlighted the company’s performance, noting that the distributable EPS exceeded the dividend payout and approached the consensus estimates. MFA Financial’s management of book value and total economic return over the past year was also emphasized as an indication of the company’s solid financial position.

Investors are encouraged by the analyst’s reiteration of the $12.50 price target, which is based on 0.89 times the current estimated book value of MFA Financial’s shares. The positive outlook reflects the belief in the company’s potential for continued value and performance within its industry segment. Trading at just 0.6 times book value and with a P/E ratio of 13.1, InvestingPro analysis shows MFA offers compelling value metrics. Subscribers can access 8 additional ProTips and a comprehensive Pro Research Report for deeper insights into MFA’s investment potential.

In other recent news, MFA Financial Inc. reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, revealing a slight miss in both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue compared to forecasts. The company posted an EPS of $0.39, falling short of the expected $0.3954, and revenue of $50.8 million, which was significantly below the forecasted $90.38 million. Additionally, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods adjusted their financial outlook for MFA Financial, lowering the stock’s price target from $13.50 to $12.50, while maintaining an Outperform rating. Analysts noted a decline in the company’s economic book value by 3.7% to $13.93. The firm also revised its earnings estimates for fiscal years 2025 and 2026. Despite these challenges, MFA Financial made strategic investments, adding over $1.2 billion in loans and securities during the quarter. The company also announced the appointment of Christopher Small to its Board of Directors, bringing his extensive experience in residential mortgage finance to the table. Small will serve on the Audit and Compensation Committees, enhancing the company’s governance and oversight.

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