JPMorgan cuts Air Canada stock rating amid challenging start to year

Published 03/03/2025, 10:50
JPMorgan cuts Air Canada stock rating amid challenging start to year

On Monday, JPMorgan analyst Jamie Baker issued a downgrade for Air Canada (TSX:AC)’s stock from Overweight to Neutral, adjusting the price target to Cdn$24.00, a significant reduction from the previous Cdn$34.00. The revision follows a series of setbacks for the airline, including increased fuel costs, a stronger U.S. dollar, and political factors influencing Canadian travel habits.

The analyst noted that Air Canada’s year has begun with several difficulties, particularly affecting leisure travel to U.S. destinations. These challenges come in addition to what the analyst perceives as a less compelling Canadian market compared to the United States. Baker’s report also referenced Air Canada’s fourth-quarter results and credit analysis, which will be detailed further in an appendix.

The new forecast for 2025 now sits below the airline management’s expectations, with JPMorgan projecting an EBITDA of $3.2 billion, lower than Air Canada’s guided range of $3.4 to $3.8 billion. This conservative stance on valuation reflects concerns about the airline’s ability to narrow its long-term valuation gap with similar U.S. carriers.

Despite the lowered price target, JPMorgan’s analysis suggests there is still potential for growth from current stock prices. However, the firm cautions that the risks to Air Canada’s fundamentals are likely tilted to the downside, prompting the shift to a Neutral rating. This outlook represents a cautious stance on the airline’s near-term prospects in light of the various headwinds it faces.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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