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Investing.com - JPMorgan downgraded BOC Hong Kong (HK:2388) (OTC:BHKLY) from Overweight to Neutral while raising its price target to HK$37.70 from HK$33.90.
The investment bank cited expectations of much lower HIBOR rates and resulting net interest margin (NIM) contraction as key factors behind the rating change.
JPMorgan revised down its earnings forecasts for BOC Hong Kong by 22% for fiscal year 2025 and 24% for fiscal year 2026 to reflect these concerns.
The firm projects BOC Hong Kong’s NIM will contract approximately 20 basis points sequentially in both first and second half of 2025, potentially reaching the second-lowest level in a decade.
JPMorgan’s analysis assumes 1-month HIBOR would rebound to 2% in the second half of 2025, though the bank noted this assumption faces "more downside than upside risk."
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