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On Tuesday, JPMorgan reiterated its Overweight rating and $475.00 price target for ULTA Beauty shares (NASDAQ:ULTA), following an analysis of recent beauty product sales trends. Currently trading at $386.44, ULTA shows strong fundamentals with a GREAT financial health score according to InvestingPro analysis, which reveals several positive indicators including strong profitability and efficient operations. ULTA Beauty’s same-store sales are observed to have a significant correlation with industry trends tracked by NielsenIQ, which measures sales in food, drug, and mass channels, though not specifically at ULTA.
According to JPMorgan, total beauty product sales in these channels decreased by 4.8% for the four weeks ending April 19, 2025, showing an improvement from the 5.2% decline in the previous month. The quarter-to-date trend through April 19 improved to a 0.8% decline compared to a 1.6% decline through April 5, 2025. These figures suggest a broad trend of flat to down 3%, which is an enhancement from last month’s down 1% to down 4%.
The current trend aligns with the consensus estimate of a 0.1% increase per Consensus Metrix and is supported by Circana data. Notably, this performance is consistent with ULTA’s own forecast, which projected same-store sales approaching the low end of its annual 0-1% range for the quarter-to-date, as reported during the fourth-quarter earnings call on March 13, 2025. This was partly due to the early strength from its 21 Days of Beauty campaign, which ran from March 7 to 27 and included an extra bonus day.
The improvement in quarter-to-date trends since ULTA’s last report suggests that the company is operating close to a 1% comparable store sales growth for the quarter, although slightly below that mark. This indicates that ULTA is potentially gaining market share in the mass beauty product channel. Trading at a P/E ratio of 15.02 and showing modest revenue growth of 0.79% over the last twelve months, InvestingPro analysis suggests ULTA is currently undervalued, with comprehensive research reports available for deeper insights into the company’s growth potential and market positioning.
In other recent news, ULTA Beauty’s financial and strategic developments have garnered attention from several analyst firms. Despite a 19% earnings per share beat in its recent earnings report, TD Cowen lowered its price target for ULTA Beauty to $400, citing intensified competition from Sephora and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) as key challenges. Conversely, Goldman Sachs upgraded ULTA Beauty’s stock rating to Buy, raising the price target to $423, driven by strong sales momentum and favorable valuation. UBS maintained its Buy rating with a $490 price target, noting the stabilization of ULTA’s market share and manageable tariff impacts. DA Davidson also reiterated a Buy rating with a $415 target, despite acknowledging short-term challenges due to decreased consumer confidence and increased online competition.
BMO Capital maintained a Market Perform rating with a $404 price target, highlighting shifts in ULTA’s product mix towards skincare and fragrance. They also noted an increased investment in capital expenditure, signaling a focus on growth. Analysts emphasize the importance of ULTA adapting to competitive pressures and evolving consumer preferences. These recent developments underscore the varied perspectives on ULTA Beauty’s potential amid a dynamic retail environment.
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