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On Saturday, JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers increased the price target for ULTA Beauty (NASDAQ: ULTA) to $477 from $475, while maintaining an Overweight rating on the company’s stock. The adjustment comes as JPMorgan projects a modest uptick in ULTA’s first-quarter comparable sales (comp sales) and a solid earnings per share (EPS) forecast. According to InvestingPro data, seven analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period, while the company maintains a healthy P/E ratio of 16x with a market capitalization of $18.4 billion.
Horvers’ updated forecast anticipates a 0.7% increase in first-quarter comp sales, slightly above the general market expectation of 0.2% and closer to the buy-side anticipation of over 1%. The EPS estimate provided by Horvers is $5.74, which is based on projections of a 38.7% gross margin and a 12.3% operating margin. These figures are slightly different from the consensus estimates of $5.79 EPS, a 38.9% gross margin, and a 12.6% operating margin. InvestingPro analysis shows ULTA’s current gross profit margin stands at 42.78%, with a strong financial health score rated as "GREAT," suggesting robust operational efficiency.
ULTA Beauty previously reported on March 13, 2025, that comp trends were nearing flat, with a boost coming from the commencement of its largest semi-annual event, 21 Days of Beauty, which ran from March 7 to February 28. Additionally, a strengthening consumer and beauty environment was noted, despite earlier slowdowns due to inclement weather, post-holiday slumps, and external factors such as the California wildfires in January. ULTA’s CEO, speaking at the JPMorgan RRU conference on April 3, expressed optimism about consumer behavior since the fourth-quarter report and a positive response to promotional events.
Further supporting the positive outlook, data from Nielsen/Circana indicated that quarter-to-date trends have improved, with March showing better performance than February and January. Comments from other beauty industry players, including COTY and Estée Lauder (EL), suggested that April’s performance exceeded that of March. JPMorgan’s analysis does not suggest a comp sales figure higher than their 0.7% forecast, indicating that any potential upside would likely be driven by market share gains.
The report also referenced ULTA’s strategy of repeating its 20% off entire basket promotion during the Easter holiday in 2025, which could contribute to the company’s performance. Finally, JPMorgan highlighted customer crossover data between ULTA and its competitors, suggesting a competitive edge for ULTA in the beauty retail sector. Based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis, ULTA appears slightly undervalued at current levels. For investors seeking deeper insights, InvestingPro offers comprehensive analysis with 8 additional ProTips and a detailed Pro Research Report, available among the 1,400+ US stocks covered on the platform.
In other recent news, ULTA Beauty has been the focus of several analysts’ updates and projections. Citi analyst Susan Anderson raised the company’s price target to $425, anticipating a first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $5.99, surpassing the Visible Alpha consensus of $5.78. Despite this optimistic outlook, Citi maintains a Neutral rating on the stock. Meanwhile, JPMorgan has reiterated its Overweight rating and a $475 price target, noting that ULTA’s sales trends align closely with industry patterns, suggesting potential market share gains.
DA Davidson also maintained its Buy rating with a $415 target, despite noting a recent slowdown in performance due to weaker consumer confidence and increased online competition. UBS analysts echoed a positive sentiment, keeping their Buy rating and a $490 target, citing market share stabilization and manageable tariff impacts. They believe ULTA’s valuation is justified and expect continued growth.
Lastly, Goldman Sachs upgraded ULTA’s rating from Neutral to Buy, raising the price target to $423. The firm highlighted strong sales momentum and favorable market conditions, suggesting ULTA’s fiscal guidance might be conservative. These developments reflect a mixed but generally positive outlook for ULTA Beauty, with analysts expressing cautious optimism about its future performance.
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