Kalvista stock holds as JMP reiterates $19 target

On Wednesday, JMP analysts maintained their Market Outperform rating and a $19.00 price target for Kalvista Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:KALV), aligning with the broader analyst consensus that remains strongly bullish. The stock has demonstrated impressive momentum, gaining over 47% year-to-date. The analysts focused on the impending launch of the company’s sebetralstat, an oral on-demand therapy for hereditary angioedema (HAE) attacks. Kalvista’s management has outlined a comprehensive plan for sebetralstat, which is currently awaiting approval with a PDUFA date set for June 17, and has a 90% probability of success (POS) according to the analysts. According to InvestingPro, analyst price targets range from $18 to $39, suggesting significant upside potential.

Sebetralstat is designed to overcome the current challenges faced by patients who often delay treatment until an HAE attack becomes severe, due in part to the complexity of injectable options. JMP’s recent survey of allergists indicated that a majority of HAE patients would likely treat more attacks if an oral on-demand option were available, which they could administer at home. While Kalvista maintains a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 10.44 and more cash than debt on its balance sheet, InvestingPro analysis reveals the company is quickly burning through cash - a common characteristic of biotech companies approaching crucial product launches.

The analysts predict that the introduction of sebetralstat could significantly expand the U.S. on-demand market for HAE treatments from $650 million to $1.2 billion. Kalvista has reported approximately 84,000 U.S. on-demand doses, a number that has remained stable as some attacks require multiple doses. JMP forecasts the number of treated HAE attacks could increase from around 50,000 today to approximately 70,000 by 2031 following sebetralstat’s approval.

JMP analysts have modeled U.S. peak sales for sebetralstat at around $250 million and suggest that the drug’s early launch could outperform expectations. This optimism is based on the potential for premium pricing and swift market adoption, drawing parallels to the successful launch of the first oral prophylactic treatment for HAE. Revenue projections for Kalvista have been set at $38 million, $159 million, and $299 million for fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively. These figures compare to the consensus estimates of $46 million, $149 million, and $267 million for the same periods.

Furthermore, the analysts have considered a scenario where sebetralstat is priced at $16,000 per attack, which lies within the expected range for payers. Under this pricing assumption, JMP’s revenue estimates would increase to $56 million, $231 million, and $436 million, showcasing a more bullish outlook for Kalvista’s financial performance post-sebetralstat launch. Based on current market dynamics and the company’s financial health score of "FAIR" from InvestingPro, the stock appears slightly overvalued at current levels, though this could change rapidly with positive developments in the sebetralstat launch.

In other recent news, KalVista Pharmaceuticals has completed enrollment for its KONFIDENT-KID clinical trial, which is evaluating sebetralstat as a potential oral treatment for hereditary angioedema (HAE) in children aged two to 11. The trial exceeded its initial enrollment target, with approximately 36 participants now involved. KalVista is also preparing for the U.S. launch of sebetralstat, anticipated to be the first oral on-demand treatment for HAE, with a PDUFA date set for June 17, 2025. Analysts from H.C. Wainwright maintain a Buy rating with a $20 target, citing the drug’s ease of use compared to current treatments. Meanwhile, Jefferies adjusted its price target for KalVista to $31 from $33, reflecting the company’s progress and market anticipation. At the AAAAI/WAO 2025 Joint Congress, KalVista presented data showing that sebetralstat could significantly reduce the time to relief for laryngeal HAE attacks. JMP Securities also reaffirmed a Market Outperform rating with a $19 target, highlighting sebetralstat’s potential to expand the on-demand treatment market for HAE. KalVista plans to provide further details on its commercial strategy during a virtual Investor Day event.

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