Keefe analysts lift Blackstone Mortgage Trust target to $19.50

On Thursday, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods adjusted their outlook on Blackstone Mortgage Trust (NYSE: NYSE:BXMT), increasing the price target from $18.50 to $19.50. The firm has decided to maintain a Market Perform rating on the stock.

The adjustment in the price target comes after the analyst’s evaluation of the company’s fourth-quarter performance and future prospects. In a statement, the analyst from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said, "Increase EPS on Capital Deployment, Modestly Lower CECL; Post-4Q, we increase forward estimates on increased originations and modestly lower CECL reserves."

The analyst anticipates that the distributable earnings per share (DE) excluding credit will hit its lowest point in the next one to two quarters. However, it is expected to surpass the dividend in the second half of 2025. This projection is based on the company’s recent performance and the analyst’s expectations for its earnings.

Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s current trading position was highlighted by the analyst, noting that it is trading at 0.88 times book value and offering a 9.8% dividend yield. Notably, InvestingPro data reveals that the company has maintained dividend payments for 13 consecutive years, though recent analysis suggests the stock is slightly overvalued at current levels. The analyst expressed a positive outlook on the stock, yet also noted that the risk/reward profile justifies the current Market Perform rating.Discover comprehensive analysis and Fair Value estimates for BXMT and 1,400+ other stocks with an InvestingPro subscription, including detailed financial health scores and expert insights.

The analyst’s comments underline the factors influencing the revised price target and rating, including increased originations, adjustments in CECL reserves, and the expectation of earnings growth relative to dividends. The Market Perform rating suggests that while positive elements are acknowledged, there are also risks that investors should consider.

In other recent news, Blackstone Mortgage Trust has been making strategic financial moves. The company has secured additional term loans and issued senior secured notes, according to its latest 8-K filing. The term loan credit agreement was amended to secure an additional $650 million in Term B-5 Loans, maturing on December 10, 2028, which will refinance existing term loans set to mature in April 2026. Concurrently, Blackstone Mortgage Trust completed the offering of $450 million in aggregate principal amount of 7.750% Senior Secured Notes due 2029, with the proceeds intended for general corporate purposes, including the repayment of existing secured indebtedness.

In other recent developments, the company announced the appointment of Marcin Urbaszek as Deputy Chief Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer, following the resignation of Thomas E. Dobrowski from the Board of Directors. This change in the executive team was accompanied by a reduction in the board’s size from nine to eight members.

Additionally, Blackstone Mortgage Trust launched a private offering aimed at raising $450 million through the issuance of senior secured notes due 2029. This offering is available to qualified institutional buyers in the United States and certain non-U.S. persons in offshore transactions. It’s important to note that these recent developments are based on press releases and SEC filings by the company.

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