Keefe, Bruyette & Woods reiterates Market Perform rating on Progressive stock

Investing.com - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods reiterated its Market Perform rating and $268.00 price target on Progressive Corp. (NYSE:PGR) following the insurer’s July 2025 earnings report.

The financial services firm raised its earnings per share estimates for Progressive to $16.60 for 2025, $14.95 for 2026, and $15.95 for 2027, up from previous forecasts of $16.30, $14.90, and $15.90, respectively.

KBW’s adjusted outlook incorporates July’s earnings outperformance and assumes higher net investment income, lower catastrophe losses, and larger reserve releases for Progressive.

These positive factors are expected to be partially offset by slower premium growth and a higher expense ratio at the insurance company.

The research firm anticipates near-term pressure on Progressive’s core loss ratio due to normalizing frequency benefits, low earned rate increases, and decelerating policies-in-force growth as competitors’ rate increases moderate.

In other recent news, Progressive Corporation reported a strong second quarter for 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) coming in at $5.40, significantly surpassing the forecast of $4.36. This marked a surprise of 23.85%. However, the company’s revenue for the quarter was $20.08 billion, falling short of the expected $20.48 billion. In corporate actions, Progressive’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share, payable on October 10, 2025. Analyst activity included Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) lowering its price target for Progressive to $327 while maintaining an Overweight rating, citing strong monthly results and stable policy-in-force additions. BofA Securities raised its price target to $344, reflecting adjustments in the S&P 500 P/E multiple. Meanwhile, Barclays (LON:BARC) reduced its price target to $281 due to valuation concerns, noting that Progressive’s trading multiple is below its 10-year average. These developments provide investors with insights into Progressive’s recent performance and market evaluations.

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