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On Wednesday, Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Jon Cox upgraded Barry Callebaut AG (BARN:SW) (OTC: BYCBF) stock from Hold to Buy, while significantly raising the price target from CHF1,150.00 to CHF1,500.00. The upgrade comes amid a shift in the cocoa market, which is expected to see a small surplus this year after three consecutive years of deficits. This change in the cocoa market dynamics has led to a substantial decrease in cocoa prices, which have dropped by a third since peaking near record highs in December.
Cox noted that while the decline in cocoa prices might not significantly boost volume for the confectionery market or for Barry Callebaut as the industry’s primary supplier in 2025, the situation is expected to normalize in 2026. The analyst emphasized that the lower cocoa prices have a more pronounced effect on Barry Callebaut’s balance sheet. The updated financial outlook has led Kepler Cheuvreux to conclude that a potential capital increase for the company is now highly unlikely.
The analyst’s commentary highlighted that Barry Callebaut’s stock price already reflects much of the negative news, and consensus expectations regarding the company’s balance sheet may be overly pessimistic. This reassessment has prompted the upgrade in the stock rating to Buy and the increase in the price target to CHF1,500. The new price target suggests a more optimistic view of the company’s financial prospects and stock performance potential.
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