KeyBanc maintains Acadia Healthcare Overweight rating, $70 target

Wednesday, KeyBanc Capital Markets reiterated its Overweight rating on Acadia Healthcare (NASDAQ:ACHC) shares, maintaining a $70.00 price target. According to InvestingPro data, this target represents significant upside potential from the current price of $45.06, with analyst targets ranging from $43 to $78. KeyBanc analyst Matthew Gillmor provided insights ahead of the company’s confirmed fourth-quarter earnings report on February 27.

Gillmor expressed the view that while recent weeks saw a downward trend in street estimates for the company’s 2025 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), they still have not fully adjusted to expectations. He anticipates an approximately in-line performance for the fourth quarter of 2024, noting that Acadia Healthcare had already given a preview of same-store (SS) volumes in early January. The company’s current EBITDA stands at $689.29 million, with InvestingPro analysis indicating strong financial health with an overall score of "GOOD."

For the 2025 guidance, the analyst suggested that the buy-side expects EBITDA to be set in the range of $720 million to $740 million, which is lower than the current street consensus of $757 million. He pointed out that this forecast assumes a heavier weighting in the second half of the year due to the timing of new facility openings, known as de novos.

The report compiled by KeyBanc includes a detailed list of these de novo openings, aimed at providing clarity on the schedule of these facilities coming online in late 2024 and early 2025. Gillmor also highlighted other areas of focus for investors in Acadia Healthcare’s upcoming earnings report, such as same-store volume dynamics across specialty facilities and early trends in the first quarter. Additionally, he mentioned the Tennessee Doctor’s Payment Plan (DPP) as a point of interest.

Concluding his commentary, Gillmor reaffirmed his positive stance on Acadia Healthcare, suggesting that the company’s shares could see an uptick as the market begins to appreciate the potential for EBITDA growth in 2026. Supporting this outlook, InvestingPro data shows the company maintains healthy profit margins of 43.1% and is expected to remain profitable this year. Investors seeking deeper insights into Acadia Healthcare’s growth potential can access comprehensive analysis and additional ProTips through InvestingPro’s detailed research reports, available for over 1,400 US stocks.

In other recent news, Acadia Healthcare has been the focus of several analyst firms. Cantor Fitzgerald maintained a Neutral rating on the healthcare provider, keeping its price target at $52.00. The firm highlighted the company’s unaffected recruitment efforts and expressed anticipation for the fourth-quarter earnings call. On the other hand, TD Cowen analysts revised their outlook on Acadia Healthcare, lowering the price target from $70.00 to $66.00, while maintaining a Buy rating. The adjustment was primarily due to increased startup expenses and additional costs related to the opening of new facilities.

Simultaneously, Acadia Healthcare reported a 3.2% increase in same-facility patient days for the quarter ending December 31, 2024, indicating a steady performance. KeyBanc Capital Markets expressed a positive outlook for the Healthcare Services (NASDAQ:HCSG) sector for the year 2025, upgrading Acadia Healthcare’s stock rating to Overweight. The firm expects a dynamic year ahead for the sector, with hospitals likely to experience continued EBITDA tailwinds. KeyBanc also anticipates that Acadia Healthcare’s stock could see a significant rise during 2025 as clarity emerges on the company’s potential EBITDA growth in 2026. These recent developments provide a snapshot of the company’s current state and future prospects.

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