KeyBanc maintains Salesforce stock Overweight rating, $440 target

Published 29/05/2025, 11:10
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On Thursday, KeyBanc Capital Markets reiterated its Overweight rating on Salesforce.com Inc (NYSE:CRM) with a steady price target of $440.00, aligning with the broader analyst consensus that remains strongly bullish with an average rating of 1.74 (1.0 being strongest buy). According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets range from $200 to $442, suggesting significant potential upside from current levels around $276. The affirmation follows Salesforce’s recent performance indicators, which showed a mix of expected results and minor disappointments, particularly in the company’s core metrics. However, Salesforce’s current remaining performance obligation (cRPO) in constant currency grew by 11%, surpassing the anticipated 10% and driving a 16.3% increase in current bookings, which was more than double KeyBanc’s estimates. The company maintains impressive gross profit margins of 77.2% and generated $12.4 billion in levered free cash flow over the last twelve months, demonstrating strong operational efficiency.

Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce, emphasized the company’s commitment to maintaining its margin and cash flow frameworks while adopting a disciplined approach to mergers and acquisitions (M&A). He noted the changes that have taken place over the past three years, including the end of the growth-at-all-costs regime, the introduction of greater discipline, waste reduction, and what the management now recognizes as a period of underinvestment.

The year 2025 has started with a sense of boldness for Salesforce, marked by the rapid development of Agentforce, a 22% increase in sales capacity by year’s end, and an $8 billion acquisition within 50 days of the new Chief Operating Financial Officer’s tenure. InvestingPro analysis reveals the company maintains a strong financial health score of "GOOD" with moderate debt levels, positioning it well for strategic growth initiatives. For deeper insights into Salesforce’s financial health and growth potential, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively to InvestingPro subscribers. Despite these aggressive moves, the company is not reverting to its previous growth-at-all-costs strategy. Benioff’s statement suggests a middle ground approach, where growth isn’t free but also isn’t restrained by past efficiency regimes.

KeyBanc’s analysis suggests that while it may be premature to declare a complete regime shift at Salesforce, the recent developments certainly indicate a strategic adjustment. This "regime nudge," as the firm describes it, points to a balanced approach to growth, aligning with Salesforce’s long-term financial strategies without compromising on the disciplined framework that has been established in recent years. The company’s revenue growth of 8.7% year-over-year and projected 8% growth for FY2026 reflect this measured approach to expansion while maintaining profitability.

In other recent news, Salesforce reported first-quarter results that exceeded expectations, particularly in subscription and support revenue, total revenue, and current remaining performance obligations, which showed an 11% year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis. The company’s total revenue for the quarter was $9.83 billion, reflecting a 7.6% year-over-year growth in USD and an 8% increase in constant currency, surpassing consensus estimates. Salesforce’s Data Cloud and AI segment saw its annual recurring revenue more than double, reaching over $1 billion, with the Agentforce product hitting an annual order value of $100 million.

Analysts have adjusted their outlooks based on these results. Truist Securities maintained a Buy rating with a $400 price target, while Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) raised its price target to $404, citing the company’s strong performance and fiscal year 2026 targets as key factors. Baird adjusted its price target to $365 from $400, maintaining an Outperform rating, while Stifel reiterated a Buy rating with a $375 target. JPMorgan also maintained an Overweight rating with a $380 target, noting Salesforce’s transformation into a profitable and cash-generative business.

Salesforce’s recent acquisition of Informatica is also drawing attention, as it is expected to enhance the company’s capabilities in artificial intelligence and data management. The acquisition is anticipated to be accretive to Salesforce’s operating margin, earnings per share, and free cash flow by the second year post-close. Overall, analysts have expressed confidence in Salesforce’s strategic moves and growth potential, with a focus on its Data Cloud, AI, and multi-cloud business segments.

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