KeyBanc raises Advanced Drainage price target to $140

Published 16/05/2025, 15:32
KeyBanc raises Advanced Drainage price target to $140

On Friday, KeyBanc Capital Markets adjusted their financial outlook on Advanced Drainage Systems (NYSE:WMS), increasing the price target to $140 from the previous $135 while continuing to recommend an Overweight rating on the stock. The adjustment came after the company reported its fourth-quarter earnings for fiscal year 2025. According to InvestingPro data, WMS currently trades at $119.57, with analyst targets ranging from $130 to $160, suggesting potential upside. The company maintains a GOOD financial health score, supported by strong profitability metrics.

Jeffrey Hammond, an analyst at KeyBanc, expressed that the company’s fiscal year 2026 outlook appears cautiously conservative regarding end markets, but noted that near-term trends seem more positive than the caution suggested in the outlook. He believes that if the current trends persist and pricing remains stable, there could be potential for an upside in fiscal year 2026. The company’s strong fundamentals support this view, with InvestingPro analysis showing liquid assets exceeding short-term obligations and moderate debt levels. Get access to 10+ additional ProTips and comprehensive financial analysis with InvestingPro.

Hammond’s remarks highlighted that the guidance prudently accounts for possible demand reduction. Despite this, he remains optimistic about the long-term investment thesis for Advanced Drainage Systems, expecting the stock to re-rate higher as investors recognize the significant tailwinds from material conversion. This optimism is supported by the company’s P/E ratio of 20.51 and strong returns over both the last month and the past decade, as revealed by InvestingPro data.

In his analysis, Hammond pointed out that the stable pricing environment is a positive factor for the company. He emphasized that the maintained Overweight rating and the raised price target reflect confidence in the company’s ability to navigate market conditions and capitalize on the opportunities ahead.

The analyst concluded by reiterating his confidence in the long-term prospects of Advanced Drainage Systems. He anticipates that the company’s shares will experience an upward re-rating as the market begins to fully value the company’s potential for material conversion benefits.

In other recent news, Advanced Drainage Systems reported its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, revealing a shortfall in both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue compared to analysts’ expectations. The company posted an EPS of $1.03, missing the forecast of $1.08, and revenue came in at $615.8 million, below the expected $660.4 million. Despite the earnings miss, Advanced Drainage Systems announced a 13% increase in its annual dividend, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders. For fiscal 2026, the company projects revenue between $2.825 billion and $2.975 billion, with adjusted EBITDA forecasted to be between $850 million and $910 million.

Loop Capital Markets recently adjusted its price target for Advanced Drainage Systems, reducing it to $133 from the previous $143, while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. The revised outlook was influenced by the company’s lower-than-expected earnings and guidance, amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment. However, Loop Capital notes potential market share gains in the company’s Allied and Infiltrator segments, along with relatively low debt levels, which may provide flexibility for increased shareholder returns. These developments highlight the company’s current challenges and strategic opportunities in navigating the economic landscape.

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