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Tuesday, Dollar Tree stock (NASDAQ:DLTR), the $18.2 billion discount retailer, is in focus following KeyBanc Capital Markets’ latest findings that the retailer raised prices from $1.25 to $2.00 on several items in April. According to InvestingPro data, the stock has surged 37% over the past six months, though analysis suggests it remains undervalued based on Fair Value metrics. KeyBanc analysts observed these changes post-tariff imposition and pointed out Dollar Tree’s capability to adjust its product offerings by either not selling certain items or sourcing from different vendors if necessary.
Despite the flexibility in managing its inventory, KeyBanc suggests that Dollar Tree may need to revise its financial guidance due to the impact of prolonged tariffs. With current annual revenue of $17.6 billion and EBITDA of $2.04 billion, the retailer had previously mitigated a 10% tariff to a monthly expense of $10M-$15M, which translates to an 8-12% annual EPS headwind. However, Dollar Tree did not account for an additional 20% tariff, which could represent a $20M monthly cost without mitigation efforts, amounting to an approximate $1.68 annualized EPS impact. InvestingPro subscribers can access detailed financial health scores and comprehensive analysis in the Pro Research Report, offering deeper insights into the company’s ability to navigate these challenges.
The analysts also noted that on April 3, they had adjusted their Dollar Tree earnings estimate, anticipating a more substantial effect from the tariffs than the company’s initial guidance suggested. Despite the tariff-induced challenges, there is a positive sentiment among investors regarding Dollar Tree’s pricing strategies, the anticipated net proceeds of approximately $800M from the sale of Family Dollar expected to be finalized in the second quarter of 2025, and the potential for a stock re-rating after the divestment.
KeyBanc has accordingly updated its EPS estimate for Dollar Tree for the year 2025, raising it to $4.65 from $4.55, reflecting a better-than-expected performance in the first quarter. With the next earnings report due on May 22, 2025, investors are closely watching the company’s performance. They maintain a cautious stance for the remainder of the year, with their estimate still below the consensus due to the anticipated tariff headwinds in the second half. The forecast for 2026 has also been slightly increased to $4.95 from $4.80, aligning with InvestingPro’s forecast of $5.27 EPS for 2026, suggesting potential upside despite current challenges.
In other recent news, Dollar Tree, Inc. reported several significant developments. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) maintained an Equal-weight rating on Dollar Tree, expressing caution due to potential tariff impacts on profitability. Analysts expect Dollar Tree to report a first-quarter 2025 comparable store sales increase of around 4%, slightly above the consensus estimate. However, they anticipate the company will miss earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter. Guggenheim, on the other hand, raised its price target for Dollar Tree to $100, citing strong Easter sales and a positive first-quarter pre-announcement.
In corporate developments, Dollar Tree announced Duncan MacNaughton as the future Chairman and CEO of its subsidiary, Family Dollar, as it prepares for its transition to an independent company. Additionally, Roxanne Weng was appointed as the new Chief Supply Chain Officer, succeeding Mike Kindy. Weng brings extensive experience from her previous role at Walgreens. Bernstein analysts noted that Dollar Tree could see a -9.2% EPS impact due to the recent US-China tariff de-escalation, which could affect future financial performance. These developments reflect Dollar Tree’s ongoing efforts to navigate a challenging retail environment while adapting to changes in leadership and market conditions.
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