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On Wednesday, Lucid (NASDAQ:LCID) Capital Markets initiated coverage on Tvardi Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:TVRD) with a Buy rating and a price target of $42.00. The stock, currently trading at $23, has shown remarkable momentum with a 24.46% gain in the past week. According to InvestingPro data, analysts maintain a Strong Buy consensus, with price targets ranging from $39 to $42, suggesting significant upside potential. The firm’s analyst highlighted the potential of the company’s STAT3 inhibitor, TTI-101, as a significant value driver, especially with the upcoming Phase 2 data unblinding in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) later this year.
Tvardi Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotechnology company that is currently developing novel therapies for fibrotic lung disease and oncology. The company’s lead candidate, TTI-101, is anticipated to compete in a market where the two existing standard of care treatments for IPF, Ofev and Esbriet, have achieved annual sales of approximately $4.3 billion and $1.0 billion, respectively. Lucid Capital Markets estimates that TTI-101 could reach peak sales of around $2.8 billion by 2039 in IPF alone, which is considered a conservative figure.
The valuation also takes into account the potential market for TTI-101 in treating metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), with peak sales estimated at approximately $298 million by 2039. This estimate currently only includes the treatment’s application in later stages of HCC, but upcoming data in the first half of 2025 could further validate its use in this indication.
Furthermore, Tvardi Therapeutics is advancing TTI-109, a prodrug of TTI-101, towards an Investigational New Drug (IND) application later this year. The combined value of TTI-101 and the company’s earlier pipeline, including TTI-109, contributes to the $42 price target, with TTI-101 alone accounting for approximately $40 per share and the earlier pipeline adding around $2 per share.
The company completed a reverse merger in the second quarter of 2025 and reported having cash and equivalents of about $52 million. This financial position is expected to support Tvardi Therapeutics through significant data readouts in 2025 and into the second half of 2026. InvestingPro analysis reveals an excellent financial health score of 4.12, with the stock trading within a 52-week range of $15.13 to $25.53. Discover more valuable insights and 6 additional ProTips for TVRD, along with comprehensive financial analysis, by accessing the full Pro Research Report on InvestingPro.
In other recent news, Cara Therapeutics, Inc. announced a definitive merger agreement with Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc., aiming to make Tvardi a wholly-owned subsidiary. This strategic move seeks to enhance Cara’s pipeline with Tvardi’s novel therapies targeting fibrotic diseases. During a Special Meeting of Stockholders, Cara received approval for the merger and related executive compensation arrangements. The stockholders also endorsed the 2025 Equity Incentive Plan and the 2025 Employee Stock Purchase Plan to incentivize employees post-merger. In addition to the merger, Cara announced a 1-for-3 reverse stock split, reducing the number of shares from approximately 4.6 million to about 1.5 million, while maintaining the authorized number of shares. This reverse stock split will adjust the exercise or conversion prices of outstanding stock options and the number of shares issuable under the company’s equity incentive plans. Legal challenges have arisen, with certain stockholders alleging misleading statements in the proxy statement/prospectus, although Cara denies any wrongdoing. To avoid litigation and disruption, Cara has provided supplemental disclosures. The merger is expected to proceed following stockholder approval and the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.
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