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On Tuesday, Macquarie maintained an Outperform rating on Pinduoduo Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD), albeit with a reduced price target of $126.00, down from the previous $153.00. According to InvestingPro data, PDD maintains an EXCELLENT financial health score of 4.0 out of 5, with impressive gross profit margins of 61%. The adjustment follows Pinduoduo’s first-quarter performance, which did not meet expectations, with Transaction (JO:NTUJ) Services (TS) revenue growing by only 6% year-over-year, a shortfall of 16% compared to Visible Alpha’s projections. Ellie Jiang, an analyst at Macquarie, attributed the underperformance to Temu’s challenges, which faced pressures from geopolitical turbulence and merchant rebates.
The company’s adjusted Net Profit Margin (NPM) also fell short of both Macquarie’s and Visible Alpha’s estimates by 2.3 and 9.0 percentage points, respectively. This was due to increased support for the ecosystem. Despite these challenges, Jiang believes that the current market valuation of Pinduoduo, which is trading at a P/E ratio of 10.6x according to InvestingPro, reflects much of the downside risk. The platform notes that PDD’s strong liquidity position is evidenced by a healthy current ratio of 2.21, with liquid assets exceeding short-term obligations.
Looking ahead, Macquarie expects Temu to sustain growth despite the impact of tariffs. The first quarter of 2025 saw Temu’s revenue slow down due to softer Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) and a higher mix of half-consignment mode (HCM), which naturally has a lower take rate (TR). However, the faster ramp-up of HCM and expansion into other regions are expected to mitigate the impact, though TS revenue growth is projected to be limited to 7% year-over-year in 2025. InvestingPro analysis reveals the company’s impressive 59% revenue growth over the last twelve months, suggesting strong underlying business momentum despite near-term challenges. Get access to over 10 additional ProTips and comprehensive financial metrics with InvestingPro.
On the domestic front, Pinduoduo is seen as healthy. The company is enhancing its ecosystem support program to Rmb100 billion, which could continue to affect domestic TR, which saw a year-over-year decrease of 13 basis points in the first quarter of 2025. Nevertheless, Macquarie notes in-line growth of Online Marketing Services (OMS), indicating robust advertising revenue. As trade-in programs gradually become less prevalent, subsidy pressures are likely to ease, particularly in categories with higher average selling prices, which should support domestic revenue. Macquarie forecasts a 12% year-over-year increase in OMS, with performance exceeding industry averages.
In other recent news, Pinduoduo Inc. has reported a significant slowdown in its first-quarter 2025 transaction services revenue, growing only 6% year-over-year compared to 33% in the previous quarter. This deceleration is attributed to a change in its Temu platform’s business model and increased sales and marketing expenses. Despite these challenges, Citi has maintained a Buy rating on Pinduoduo, adjusting the price target to $152 from $165, indicating confidence in the company’s long-term recovery potential. Barclays (LON:BARC) also reiterated its Overweight rating with a $158 price target, noting the revenue shortfall due to Temu’s performance but keeping its outlook unchanged. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) maintained its Overweight rating with a $150 price target, anticipating the upcoming financial results could serve as a catalyst for Pinduoduo’s stock. Additionally, Pinduoduo’s shift to a local fulfillment model in the U.S. for its Temu platform aims to mitigate tariff impacts, aligning with broader industry trends. This strategic pivot has been positively received by investors, reflecting a proactive approach to navigating trade challenges.
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