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On Wednesday, Macquarie analysts downgraded Qantas Airways Ltd. (QAN:AU) (OTC: QABSY) from Outperform to Neutral, while increasing the price target to AUD9.30, up from the previous AUD8.40. The revision comes as the stock trades near its 52-week high, having delivered an impressive 64.57% return over the past year. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears slightly overvalued at current levels, despite its strong market performance.
The analysts pointed out that Qantas is facing pressure from natural cost growth and initiatives such as the Frequent Flyer (FF) program and the Singapore Joint Services Agreement Project (SJSP). Despite these challenges, the company maintains a "GREAT" financial health score of 3.27 on InvestingPro, with solid revenue growth of 10.72% in the last twelve months. The analysts noted that some of these pressures would be offset by a favorable oil price environment and a significant reduction in the oil crack spread, which is anticipated to contribute to an 11% growth in EBITDA.
The report further mentioned that Qantas’s capital expenditures are expected to be fully funded by operating cash flow, allowing the airline to resume dividend payments. Macquarie forecasts a dividend of $0.15 per share, supplemented by a share buyback program of approximately $200 million, translating to an additional $0.10-12 per share.
Looking ahead to FY26, the analysts anticipate that the gains from the unwinding of the crack spread will diminish and that currency fluctuations could pose a headwind. Additionally, they expect international operations to face increased yield pressure from European and US routes due to growing capacity. The full impact of the SJSP and the Customer Rewards Plus (CR+) to domestic routes is projected to initially drag on performance.
The report concluded with a note on Qantas’s adeptness at mitigating inflationary pressures thus far, which has been crucial in maintaining its financial stability.
In other recent news, Qantas Airways has experienced a change in its stock rating. UBS has downgraded the airline’s shares from Buy to Neutral, adjusting the price target to AUD9.00 from AUD8.60. This decision comes after a significant increase in the company’s stock value, with shares surging approximately 70% over the past year.
UBS’s downgrade reflects an assessment of the international airline sector, which has benefited Qantas. The firm acknowledges the growing confidence in Qantas’s ability to sustain post-Covid earnings, leading to more stable consensus forecasts and a re-rating of the company’s multiples. UBS now views the market outlook for Qantas as less compelling, given the stock’s proximity to their price target and balanced earnings risk.
These are recent developments in Qantas Airways’ financial trajectory. The company’s stock price is now within 1% of UBS’s discounted cash flow-based price target. The earnings risk appears reasonably balanced, with UBS’s estimates for the financial year 2025 in line with the consensus. As a result, UBS suggests that the potential for further upside in Qantas’s stock price has diminished. Investors may take note of UBS’s revised stance on Qantas Airways, as the stock’s impressive rally over the last year has now led to a more cautious outlook from the investment bank.
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