Madrigal stock rating initiated at Buy by H.C. Wainwright with $500 target

Investing.com - H.C. Wainwright initiated coverage on Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:MDGL) Thursday with a Buy rating and a $500 price target, citing the company’s dominant position in the MASH (metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis) treatment landscape. According to InvestingPro data, the stock is currently trading near its 52-week high of $443, with analysts maintaining a strong buy consensus (1.47 rating) and targets ranging from $266 to $567.

The research firm highlighted Rezdiffra, Madrigal’s FDA-approved therapy for noncirrhotic MASH with moderate to advanced fibrosis, which demonstrated robust histologic benefits and favorable safety in Phase 3 MAESTRO-NASH trials. Commercial performance has exceeded expectations with second-quarter 2025 sales reaching $212.8 million and patient penetration surpassing 23,000 users, representing approximately 7% of the U.S. F2/F3 opportunity. InvestingPro data reveals impressive revenue growth, with the company maintaining a strong gross profit margin of 96.28%.

H.C. Wainwright noted that a newly issued U.S. patent extends Rezdiffra’s exclusivity through 2045, securing long-term revenue potential, while European expansion beginning with Germany in the second half of 2025 enhances global growth prospects. The firm emphasized Rezdiffra’s advantages over injectable GLP-1 treatments, including its liver-directed mechanism, once-daily oral administration, and strong tolerability profile.

Management has guided mid-teens sequential revenue growth for the second half of 2025 as contracting dynamics evolve, with gross-to-net expected to remain within specialty norms. The addressable market remains substantial with approximately 315,000 eligible F2/F3 patients in the U.S. and a broader diagnosed pool of about 1.5 million patients.

The firm also pointed to Madrigal’s strong financial position with nearly $1 billion in cash, advancing confirmatory outcomes data in compensated cirrhosis patients expected in 2027, and growing physician adoption that has already reached approximately 80% penetration of top-tier targets.

In other recent news, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals has received approval from the European Commission for its MASH treatment, Rezdiffra, marking it as the first approved medication for this liver condition in the European Union. This approval is significant as it covers all 27 EU countries, including Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway, and does not require a liver biopsy for treatment. Following this development, TD Cowen raised its price target for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals to $554, maintaining a Buy rating, while Citizens JMP increased its price target to $485 with a Market Outperform rating. Both firms’ adjustments reflect optimism about the EU’s approval of Rezdiffra.

Additionally, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals plans to launch Rezdiffra in Germany next quarter, targeting approximately 370,000 patients diagnosed with F2/F3 MASH who are under the care of liver specialists. Cantor Fitzgerald maintained a Neutral rating on the company, following discussions about the strength of Madrigal’s new weight-based dosing patent, which is a notable point of interest for investors. The patent, which expires in February 2045, has sparked debate regarding its implications for the company’s future. These recent developments underscore the company’s strategic moves in the European market and the attention it has garnered from analysts.

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