Melius sees risk for Alphabet stock if OpenAI enters ads

Published 31/03/2025, 23:08
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Monday, Alphabet Inc’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) advertising business, which generated $350 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, could potentially encounter challenges if OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, decides to enter the advertising market, according to Melius Research. According to InvestingPro data, Alphabet maintains a strong financial health score of 3.13, labeled as "GREAT," though its stock has declined nearly 8% in the past week. The firm’s analysts have highlighted OpenAI’s significant user base, particularly among younger demographics, which are highly sought after by advertisers.

OpenAI’s ChatGPT has rapidly gained popularity, amassing 400 million users within two years. Melius Research underscores the potential impact on Alphabet’s revenue stream, raising concerns about the future of the company’s search revenue which exceeds $220 billion. The entry of ChatGPT into the advertising arena could divert a portion of the $700 billion advertising market away from traditional players like Alphabet, which currently maintains a robust 58.2% gross profit margin. InvestingPro analysis indicates that Alphabet is currently trading below its Fair Value, with 12 additional ProTips available for subscribers.

The analysts at Melius Research are drawing attention to the strong appeal that OpenAI’s user base could have for advertisers. They emphasize the importance of the young users who are currently engaging with ChatGPT’s platform. This demographic is particularly valuable for advertisers aiming to establish long-term brand loyalty and engagement.

The speculation about ChatGPT’s potential move into advertising comes as the industry continues to evolve rapidly with the advent of new technologies and platforms. The questions posed by Melius Research analysts reflect the broader industry considerations about how emerging tech companies may disrupt established revenue models for internet giants like Alphabet.

Alphabet has not publicly commented on the speculation by Melius Research regarding potential competition from ChatGPT in the advertising space. The company’s advertising business has been a cornerstone of its revenue, and any significant shifts in the market could have notable implications for Alphabet’s financial performance.

In other recent news, Alphabet Inc. has been under scrutiny due to potential anti-trust penalties. JMP analysts have maintained a Market Perform rating on the company, citing concerns about the financial impact of these penalties. They highlighted that Alphabet’s stock trades at a discount compared to the S&P 500, but the looming regulatory challenges could affect future earnings. Meanwhile, Alphabet and Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) have announced a collaboration to integrate Google’s advanced AI capabilities into Lockheed Martin’s AI Factory. This partnership aims to enhance AI applications in national security and aerospace sectors. Additionally, YouTube, a subsidiary of Alphabet, will change its view-counting methodology for Shorts to align with TikTok and Instagram Reels by 2025. This update is designed to provide creators with more accurate performance insights without affecting their earnings. Furthermore, UBS has lowered its digital ad growth forecast to 4.5% from the previously projected 9%, reflecting a cautious outlook in the advertising sector. This adjustment is attributed to shifts in budget allocations by advertisers in sectors like retail and travel.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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