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On Thursday, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities adjusted its outlook on ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) shares, reducing the price target to $129.00 from the previous $131.00. The stock currently trades at $118.67, near its 52-week high of $126.34, with a market capitalization of $515 billion. Despite this adjustment, the firm retained a Neutral rating on the oil and gas giant’s stock. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears fairly valued based on its comprehensive Fair Value model.
The revision comes as Mizuho analysts anticipate ExxonMobil’s first-quarter earnings for 2025, which are expected to be disclosed after market close on April 3, 2025. The analysts predict that the earnings per share (EPS) will be approximately $1.72, which aligns closely with consensus estimates. This figure represents a slight quarter-over-quarter increase of 2% but a year-over-year decline of 17%. The company has demonstrated consistent profitability, with trailing twelve-month revenue of $340.57 billion and a healthy gross profit margin of 30.73%. For deeper insights into ExxonMobil’s financial metrics and exclusive analysis, InvestingPro subscribers have access to over 30 additional key indicators and expert-curated ProTips.
The forecasted earnings reflect a balance of positive and negative factors. On the positive side, the company is likely to benefit from higher refining margin indicators and improved chemicals pricing. However, these benefits are expected to be counterbalanced by the absence of around $700 million in favorable earnings adjustments that were recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Furthermore, Mizuho’s analysts have updated their earnings and cash flow projections for ExxonMobil for the years 2025 to 2030. These updates are based on the company’s new Modeling Toolkit, which includes revised sensitivity disclosures. At ExxonMobil’s Corporate Plan Update in December, the company had estimated that it could generate approximately $20 billion in additional earnings and around $30 billion in cash flow from operations (CFFO) by 2030. Mizuho’s own estimates are slightly different, with an anticipated earnings uplift of approximately $21 billion and a CFFO increase of about $28 billion over the same period. These projections are based on Mizuho’s commodity price forecasts and capital expenditure estimates, which are slightly more conservative than the company’s guidance, particularly regarding PXD synergy forecasts.
The revised price target reflects a modest decrease of about 2% from the previous target. This change is a result of the updated net asset value (NAV) based on year-end 2024 reserves and the new financial sensitivities provided by ExxonMobil. Despite the lowered price target, Mizuho’s stance on ExxonMobil remains Neutral, suggesting that the firm sees neither a particularly strong buy nor sell signal for the stock at this time. InvestingPro data reveals the company’s strong financial foundation, with a 42-year streak of dividend increases and a current yield of 3.34%. The platform’s Financial Health Score rates ExxonMobil as "GOOD" with an overall score of 2.91, reflecting its stable market position and moderate debt levels.
In other recent news, ExxonMobil has announced a leadership transition, with Karen T. McKee retiring as president of ExxonMobil Product Solutions Company and vice president of the corporation on May 1, 2025. Matt Crocker will succeed her in these roles, bringing extensive experience from various leadership positions within the company. In financial developments, ExxonMobil has issued $192.8 million in Floating Rate Notes due in 2075, with the transaction led by Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) & Co. LLC and UBS Securities LLC.
The company is also undergoing operational changes in the UK, planning to cut approximately 250 jobs as it consolidates its operations and closes its Leatherhead office by 2026. Despite these changes, ExxonMobil intends to expand its London trading hub. Additionally, ExxonMobil is set to participate in discussions with President Trump alongside other U.S. oil producers, focusing on tariffs, trade, and liquefied natural gas exports. This meeting, organized by the American Petroleum Institute, highlights the sector’s role in economic growth and national security.
These developments come amid a broader recovery in the energy sector, with ExxonMobil and other energy stocks experiencing gains following a rebound in crude oil prices. The recovery in oil prices is seen as a positive indicator for the business environment of oil and gas companies.
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