Mizuho upgrades Travel + Leisure stock to Outperform on earnings inflection

Published 24/07/2025, 10:00
Mizuho upgrades Travel + Leisure stock to Outperform on earnings inflection

Investing.com - Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) upgraded Travel + Leisure (NYSE:TNL) from Neutral to Outperform on Thursday, while raising its price target to $72.00 from $63.00. The stock, currently trading at $61.87, sits near its 52-week high of $62.27 and commands a market capitalization of $4 billion.

The upgrade comes as Mizuho identifies five key drivers for the timeshare company, including an expected earnings inflection in the second half of the year due to easier tour comparisons. According to InvestingPro data, TNL trades at an attractive P/E ratio of 10x while maintaining strong profitability metrics.

Mizuho highlighted potential upside from new brand partnerships, specifically mentioning the new Sports Illustrated brand in 2026/2027 and optionality from the Accor (EPA:ACCP) brand.

The firm also pointed to Travel + Leisure’s robust free cash flow combined with share repurchase programs, which Mizuho projects will drive the 2026 estimated FCF yield to over 13.5%.

While Mizuho noted that Travel + Leisure shares have outperformed the broader market with approximately 22% gains year-to-date compared to the S&P’s 8%, they have lagged behind Hilton Grand Vacations (NYSE:HGV), which remains Mizuho’s top pick in the timeshare sector with around 30% gains.

In other recent news, Travel + Leisure Co. reported its second-quarter earnings for 2025, revealing a slight miss on earnings per share (EPS) but exceeding revenue expectations. The company achieved an EPS of $1.65, just below the anticipated $1.66. However, revenue reached $1.02 billion, surpassing the forecasted $1.01 billion. Additionally, Stifel raised its price target for Travel + Leisure to $70 from $66, maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. Stifel highlighted the company’s focus on increasing the new owner portion of its business to 35%, though they noted this percentage can vary each quarter. The firm emphasized the importance of attracting the right type of owners and maintaining strong business fundamentals. These developments reflect the company’s ongoing strategic efforts and financial performance.

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