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On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts issued a downgrade for Paramount Group (NYSE:PGRE) stock, moving the rating from Equalweight to Underweight. Accompanying this downgrade, the firm also adjusted its price target for the real estate investment trust from $4.00 to $3.25. Currently trading at $4.24, with a market capitalization of $1 billion, PGRE has shown a significant 7.6% return over the last week according to InvestingPro data. The revision reflects concerns over several factors that could potentially hinder the company’s performance.
The downgrade was based on four key reasons outlined by the analysts. They pointed to persistent demand challenges in the San Francisco financial district, where Paramount Group holds significant investments. Additionally, the firm is facing substantial lease expirations that could impact earnings growth negatively. The analysts also cited Paramount’s high leverage, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 66% and potential interest cost increases upon debt refinancing expected in 2026 as reasons for concern. InvestingPro data shows the company maintains strong liquidity with a current ratio of 7.79, though its Altman Z-Score of 0.41 suggests financial distress risk.
Furthermore, the analysts suggested that the company’s financial guidance might be at risk due to a slowing economy. They based the new price target on a 10x multiple on the company’s forecasted funds from operations (FFO) for 2026.
Morgan Stanley acknowledged that there are risks to their analysis, including the possibility of strategic actions by Paramount Group, such as asset sales, or an AI-driven recovery in the San Francisco market that could counteract their concerns. Despite these potential developments, the firm maintains a cautious stance on the stock’s outlook.
In other recent news, Paramount Group Inc . reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, which fell short of expectations in terms of earnings per share (EPS) but exceeded revenue forecasts. The company posted an EPS of -$0.18, missing the projected -$0.05, while revenue reached $186.27 million, surpassing the anticipated $180.42 million. Paramount Group also announced that Katharina Otto-Bernstein, a board member since the company’s initial public offering in 2014, will retire and not seek re-election at the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. In line with this change, the company plans to reduce the number of directors on its board from nine to eight.
The company’s earnings call highlighted its achievement of a GRESB 5-star rating, emphasizing its leadership in ESG practices. Paramount Group also revealed plans to enhance amenities in its San Francisco properties, aiming to attract more tenants. The firm anticipates negative same-store growth in 2025, reflecting ongoing market challenges. Additionally, Paramount Group’s management discussed strategic plans, such as forming joint ventures to mitigate risks and potentially engaging in asset sales to strengthen its financial position. These developments come amidst a broader context of market dynamics and strategic adjustments by the company.
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