Morgan Stanley downgrades Occidental Petroleum stock on debt concerns

Published 18/08/2025, 09:24
Morgan Stanley downgrades Occidental Petroleum stock on debt concerns

Investing.com - Morgan Stanley downgraded Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) from Overweight to Equalweight on Monday, setting a price target of $52.00. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for OXY range from $40 to $65, with the stock currently trading at $44.61.

The downgrade comes as Occidental continues to manage a debt burden that remains significantly higher than industry peers, with Morgan Stanley estimating a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of approximately 2x by the end of 2025, including preferred shares. The company’s current total debt stands at $24.2 billion, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.88x.

While the firm acknowledged Occidental has made substantial progress in reducing debt since the CrownRock acquisition, repaying approximately $7.5 billion so far, the company has paused share repurchases, including preferred redemption, until reaching its debt target.

Morgan Stanley noted that Occidental’s shareholder return yield lags behind competitors, projecting a 2% yield compared to the peer median of 7% in 2025, and the company’s 2026 free cash flow to equity yield is roughly in line with the oil exploration and production sector average.

The investment bank expects Occidental to reach its leverage target in late 2026 or early 2027 at current price levels, suggesting potential for the stock’s historical premium valuation to re-emerge once the balance sheet improves.

In other recent news, Occidental Petroleum reported its second-quarter 2025 earnings, surpassing Wall Street expectations. The company achieved an adjusted earnings per share of $0.39, exceeding the forecasted $0.34, marking a 14.71% earnings surprise. Additionally, Occidental Petroleum reported revenues of $6.46 billion, which was higher than the anticipated $6.24 billion. In related developments, CFRA has adjusted its price target for Occidental Petroleum to $50, up from $45, while maintaining a Hold rating on the stock. This adjustment is based on analyses using enterprise value to EBITDA and discounted cash flow models. CFRA’s projections apply a 5.5x multiple of enterprise value to the projected 2026 EBITDA. These recent developments provide investors with crucial insights into Occidental Petroleum’s financial performance and market evaluations.

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