Two 59%+ winners, four above 25% in Aug – How this AI model keeps picking winners
On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reiterated its positive stance on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) with an Overweight rating and a steady price target of $180.00. Trading at $131.65, the stock has shown remarkable momentum with a 56% gain year-to-date. According to InvestingPro data, analysts maintain a strong buy consensus with price targets ranging from $113 to $196, suggesting potential upside. The firm’s analysts highlighted Alibaba’s significant role as an AI enabler, which is expected to gain from the increasing demand for AI inference.
Alibaba has been identified as a company that is well-positioned to capitalize on the AI inference demand that spiked following DeepSeek’s notable moment in January. Analysts observed that while other major technology firms have ramped up their capital expenditures since the second half of 2024, competitors like Tencent (HK:0700) and Bytedance seem to be focusing their GPU resources on internal needs. This scenario leaves Alibaba’s cloud division, AliCloud, as a distinct cloud service provider with a considerable allocation for external customers. The company’s strong financial health is reflected in its "GREAT" overall score from InvestingPro, with particularly high marks in profitability and price momentum.
Morgan Stanley anticipates Alibaba’s cloud revenue growth to pick up pace, forecasting an acceleration from 13% in the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 to 18% in the fourth quarter, and reaching 25% in fiscal year 2026. The firm also suggests that there could be a potential beat in the near term that may serve as a catalyst for the company’s financial performance. With current annual revenue of $134.5 billion and a healthy gross profit margin of 39%, investors should note that Alibaba’s next earnings report is scheduled for May 15, just two days away.
Furthermore, Alibaba’s proactive approach to adopting AI technology is seen as a competitive advantage in the e-commerce sector. By using its own consumption data and a wide range of use cases, Alibaba is positioned to potentially stabilize its market share in e-commerce or increase its take-rate. This possibility, which Morgan Stanley believes is not yet reflected in the current stock price, could lead to an upside to their base case estimate of a 5% compound annual growth rate in customer management revenue from fiscal year 2025 to 2028, compared to the 9% growth observed in the third quarter of fiscal year 2025. With an attractive PEG ratio of 0.66 and EV/EBITDA of 7.9x, InvestingPro’s comprehensive analysis indicates the stock is currently undervalued. For deeper insights into Alibaba’s valuation and growth prospects, investors can access the detailed Pro Research Report, available exclusively to InvestingPro subscribers.
In other recent news, Alibaba Group Holding Limited has been actively engaging in strategic financial maneuvers and receiving notable analyst attention. The company has continued its share repurchase program, as confirmed by a recent filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, though specific details about the number of shares repurchased were not disclosed. This move is generally seen as a way to return value to shareholders and indicates confidence in Alibaba’s long-term growth prospects. On the analyst front, Barclays (LON:BARC) has reiterated its Overweight rating for Alibaba, maintaining a price target of $180, citing the acceleration of its cloud business and its strategic positioning within China’s AI sector.
Additionally, Citi has reaffirmed a Buy rating with a $169 price target following Alibaba’s AI Dynamic Conference 2025, highlighting the company’s focus on AI development and open-source innovation. Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities has also increased its price target for Alibaba to $170, maintaining an Outperform rating and emphasizing the company’s advancements in AI and cloud revenue growth. The firm noted Alibaba’s strong foundation for AI investment and the potential for its businesses to reach a break-even point within two years. These developments reflect Alibaba’s strategic emphasis on technology and shareholder value, positioning it favorably in the current market landscape.
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