Morgan Stanley maintains Arcos Dorados overweight with $13 target

Published 07/04/2025, 19:44
Morgan Stanley maintains Arcos Dorados overweight with $13 target

On Monday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reiterated its positive stance on Arcos Dorados Holdings (NYSE:ARCO) shares, maintaining an Overweight rating and a $13.00 price target. The firm's analysts highlighted the increasing investor interest in the company, citing its attractive valuation and resilient business model as key factors. The stock currently trades at a P/E ratio of 9.8, supporting the value proposition. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears undervalued based on its Fair Value model, despite expectations for a softer start to 2025. Analysts at Morgan Stanley project a recovery for Arcos Dorados' performance as the year progresses.

In their commentary, Morgan Stanley analysts noted the company's ability to navigate regional economic challenges effectively. They pointed out that Arcos Dorados Holdings, which operates McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) franchises in Latin America and the Caribbean, has demonstrated a robust business model that appeals to investors looking for value in the current market environment. InvestingPro data reveals the company has maintained strong financial health with an overall score of GOOD, while delivering impressive dividend growth of 50% over the last twelve months.

The financial institution's analysts expect that the company's 2025 results may begin on a weaker note. However, they are optimistic that the performance of Arcos Dorados will improve over the course of the year. This anticipated recovery is reflected in the maintained Overweight rating, suggesting that the firm believes the stock will outperform the average total return of stocks analyzed by Morgan Stanley over the next 12 to 18 months. Recent market activity has pushed the stock near its 52-week low of $7.02, with a notable 10% decline in the past week, potentially presenting an opportunity for value investors.

Arcos Dorados Holdings has established a significant presence in its market, operating the largest chain of McDonald's restaurants in terms of systemwide sales and number of locations, primarily in Latin America and the Caribbean. The company has been working to adapt to the changing economic landscape in these regions, focusing on strategic initiatives to enhance growth and profitability.

Investors and market watchers will be keeping a close eye on Arcos Dorados Holdings as the year unfolds, monitoring the company's financial performance against the backdrop of Morgan Stanley's expectations. The firm's maintained price target of $13.00 per share will serve as a benchmark for assessing the company's market valuation and stock performance in the coming months.

In other recent news, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc reported its Q4 2024 earnings, revealing a strong performance with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.28, which exceeded the forecast of $0.18. Despite the impressive earnings, the company’s revenue came in slightly below expectations at $1.14 billion, compared to the forecast of $1.16 billion. The company achieved a historic milestone with its full-year EBITDA reaching $500 million, supported by significant growth in digital sales, which increased by 25% in mobile app transactions. Moody's upgraded Arcos Dorados' debt rating to BA. One with a stable outlook, and Fitch raised it to BBB-, marking the highest combined rating in the company's history.

Arcos Dorados plans to open 91-100 new Experience of the Future (EOTF) restaurants in 2025, with capital expenditures projected between $300 million and $350 million. The company's strategic focus on digital growth was underscored by a 58% contribution of digital channels to total sales. The firm faced economic challenges, particularly in Argentina and Brazil, but managed to maintain market leadership across Latin America. Despite rising food and paper costs, especially in Brazil, the company remains optimistic about its operational strategies. Looking forward, Arcos Dorados anticipates gradual improvements in operating conditions and aims to capitalize on economic stabilization in key markets.

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