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On Thursday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts initiated coverage of Abivax (NASDAQ:ABVX), a biopharmaceutical company, assigning an Equalweight stock rating with a price target of $12.00. The company, currently valued at $428 million, has seen its stock surge over 15% in the past week, though it remains down more than 54% over the past year. The focus of the coverage is on Abivax’s drug candidate obefazimod, which is currently in development for the treatment of ulcerative colitis (UC). According to InvestingPro data, analysts broadly maintain a bullish stance on the stock, with price targets ranging from $12 to $50.
The analysts noted the Phase 2 results for obefazimod, a miR-124 upregulator, show promise as a safe, oral option for UC patients, particularly due to its efficacy in advanced treatment-experienced patients. This could potentially set obefazimod apart from other oral therapies in the market. InvestingPro analysis reveals the company holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, though it’s quickly burning through cash reserves. Morgan Stanley acknowledged the company’s efforts to manage placebo responses in the upcoming Phase 3 trials while maintaining consistency with the design elements of the Phase 2b study.
The upcoming Phase 3 induction readout, expected in the third quarter of 2025, is highlighted as a significant milestone for Abivax. The results will be crucial in determining the future direction of the company. The analysts have discussed with key opinion leaders (KOLs) the benchmarks for the readout, suggesting that a placebo-adjusted clinical remission rate of over 15-20% would be ideal, while a rate of over 10% would still be considered progress for the program.
Morgan Stanley also mentioned the novelty of obefazimod’s mechanism and the recent data on oral anti-IL-23R, which could impact the drug’s profile. Additionally, the heavily-treated patient population enrolled in the Phase 3 program is a factor to watch, as it could influence the trial outcomes.
The analysts concluded that they will be closely monitoring enrollment updates and the pivotal data release. They also indicated that their "bull case" scenario could see potential upside beyond the current base case price target. However, the Equalweight rating reflects Morgan Stanley’s view that Abivax’s shares may not see significant movement until the Phase 3 data is available to investors. With a current ratio of 3.04, the company maintains strong liquidity to fund its operations, though InvestingPro analysis indicates it’s not expected to be profitable this year. Subscribers to InvestingPro can access 8 additional key insights about Abivax’s financial health and market position.
In other recent news, Abivax has maintained its Market Outperform rating and a $33.00 price target from JMP Securities. This decision follows a key opinion leader event where Dr. David T. Rubin shared positive insights on obefazimod, a drug under development by Abivax for ulcerative colitis. Dr. Rubin, a leading expert in gastroenterology, provided his perspectives on the drug, which is currently in the Phase 3 program. His involvement in multiple ulcerative colitis development programs lends significant credibility to his opinions. The analyst from JMP Securities, Jason Butler, based the reiterated price target on a risk-adjusted, discounted cash flow analysis. Dr. Rubin’s positive outlook during the event supports JMP’s confidence in the potential of obefazimod as a treatment option. These recent developments reflect Abivax’s ongoing efforts to address the unmet needs of ulcerative colitis patients.
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