Needham cuts Marvell stock price target to $100, keeps Buy rating

Published 06/03/2025, 14:14
Needham cuts Marvell stock price target to $100, keeps Buy rating

On Thursday, Needham analysts adjusted their outlook on Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL) stock, lowering the price target to $100 from $120, while still maintaining a Buy rating. The revision reflects a more conservative valuation amidst broader market trends. Currently trading at $90.14 with a market cap of $78 billion, Marvell appears overvalued according to InvestingPro analysis, which offers comprehensive valuation metrics and 10+ additional insights for subscribers.

Marvell’s recent financial results aligned with the expectations set by published figures. Despite the overall market’s minimal satisfaction with such reports, the company’s management has confidently addressed investor concerns. They particularly highlighted the anticipated growth in revenue from custom XPUs for a major client, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), projecting an increase in the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and beyond.

Furthermore, Marvell’s artificial intelligence (AI) revenue is projected to significantly exceed the initial $2.5 billion target for FY26. Needham has consequently raised its FY26 AI revenue estimate by approximately $70 million to $3.565 billion. This optimistic forecast is based on the company’s strong position in the AI market.

Management also provided reassurances regarding the demand for Marvell’s 800G PAM4 products, indicating that they do not anticipate a drop in interest for these offerings. This assurance suggests a stable outlook for Marvell’s high-speed data transfer solutions.

The revised 12-month price target of $100 is based on a roughly 30 times price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of Needham’s calendar year 2026 non-GAAP earnings per share estimate. This adjustment takes into account the compression of multiples across the AI sector, signaling a more cautious approach to valuation in light of recent market dynamics. With an EV/EBITDA multiple of 81.89x and analyst targets ranging from $90 to $188, detailed valuation analysis is available in the comprehensive Pro Research Report on InvestingPro.

In other recent news, Marvell Technology Group Ltd . reported notable developments in its financial performance and strategic partnerships. The company recently released its fourth fiscal quarter results, which highlighted substantial revenue growth, particularly in its Data Center segment, achieving a sequential increase of 24% and a year-over-year surge of 78%. Despite these strong figures, several firms, including Piper Sandler, KeyBanc, Stifel, Barclays (LON:BARC), and Jefferies, have adjusted their price targets for Marvell, citing varying reasons such as market expectations and comparable company valuations. Piper Sandler lowered its price target to $95, while KeyBanc and Stifel both set their targets at $115, and Barclays reduced theirs to $130. Jefferies set their target at $100, maintaining a Buy rating, and emphasized the importance of Marvell’s ongoing relationship with Amazon.

Marvell’s partnership with Amazon Web Services (AWS) remains a focal point, with the company anticipating growth in revenue from its custom silicon projects, known as XPU, in fiscal years 2026 and 2027. The company’s commitment to its Amazon projects was underscored by a multi-generational agreement signed in December, which analysts believe positions Marvell well for future technological advancements. Despite some concerns over short-term performance, Marvell’s management remains optimistic about its long-term growth prospects, particularly in the AI and custom ASIC segments. Analysts from KeyBanc and Stifel expressed confidence in Marvell’s leadership in AI and data center silicon, with projections for continued growth in these areas. Overall, the company’s recent financial results and strategic initiatives suggest a positive outlook for its future performance in the tech industry.

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