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On Friday, KeyBanc maintained an Overweight rating on Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (NASDAQ:OLLI) shares with a $125.00 price target, representing significant upside from the current trading price of $99.14. According to InvestingPro data, analyst consensus remains bullish with targets ranging from $105 to $133. The firm’s analyst, Bradley B. Thomas, highlighted the company’s recent acquisition of 40 former Big Lots (NYSE:BIG) store leases from Gordon Brothers, which is part of a larger expansion following the Big Lots bankruptcy. This acquisition brings Ollie’s total number of acquired locations to 63, including 23 stores picked up in the second half of 2024.
Thomas pointed out that Ollie’s is on track for a significant expansion in 2025, with plans to open approximately 75 new stores, representing a 13% growth rate. This expansion is set to surpass the company’s previous plan of 10%+ annual unit growth. The company’s strong financial health, rated as "Good" by InvestingPro, supports this aggressive growth strategy, with a current ratio of 2.91 indicating robust liquidity to fund expansion. The analyst anticipates that these new stores will contribute positively to Ollie’s sales and earnings per share (EPS) in 2025.
The acquisition of the store leases is seen as a strategic move for Ollie’s, accelerating its growth trajectory as it capitalizes on the available retail space from Big Lots’ restructuring. Thomas expects the new stores to perform well and contribute to an acceleration in sales and EPS for the discount retailer in the upcoming year.
KeyBanc’s reiterated Overweight rating indicates the firm’s confidence in Ollie’s Bargain Outlet’s prospects, especially considering the planned expansion and expected performance of the newly acquired stores. The company has demonstrated strong performance with a 12.48% revenue growth in the last twelve months and maintains a healthy 40.2% gross profit margin. The $125.00 price target reflects the firm’s assessment of the company’s value based on these growth initiatives. For deeper insights into OLLI’s valuation and growth prospects, investors can access comprehensive analysis through InvestingPro’s detailed research reports, available for over 1,400 US stocks.
The analyst concluded by expressing a positive outlook for Ollie’s, expecting the incremental stores to drive accelerating sales and EPS in 2025. This led to an increase in the estimated 2025 EPS due to the contribution from the new store locations. KeyBanc’s continued support for the stock with a high price target emphasizes their expectation of strong performance from Ollie’s Bargain Outlet.
In other recent news, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc has experienced several noteworthy developments. Jefferies downgraded Ollie’s stock rating from Buy to Hold, lowering the price target to $111, citing concerns over inventory growth and future performance despite strong third-quarter gross margins of 41.4%. In contrast, RBC Capital maintained an Outperform rating with a $130 price target, suggesting potential benefits from Big Lots store closures, which could lead to market share gains for Ollie’s. Meanwhile, JPMorgan reaffirmed an Overweight rating with a $135 price target, anticipating a possible fourth-quarter upside due to favorable consumer spending patterns and weather-related demand.
Additionally, Ollie’s announced leadership changes, appointing Eric van der Valk as the new President & CEO, while John Swygert transitioned to Executive Chairman of the Board. These changes are part of a succession plan aimed at continuing the company’s growth trajectory. RBC Capital also highlighted that Ollie’s might acquire additional leases from Big Lots, potentially increasing Ollie’s unit growth projection. Analysts from both RBC Capital and JPMorgan have projected earnings per share for 2025 and 2026, with RBC estimating $3.91 and $4.34, respectively, and JPMorgan projecting slightly lower figures. These developments indicate a period of strategic adjustments and potential growth opportunities for Ollie’s Bargain Outlet.
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