Oppenheimer sets $65 target on Tvardi stock with Outperform rating

On Wednesday, Oppenheimer began coverage on shares of Tvardi Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:TVRD), issuing an Outperform rating and setting a price target of $65.00. The stock, currently trading at $27.74 and near its 52-week high of $28.55, has already shown strong momentum with a 52% gain over the past six months. The firm sees a significant but underappreciated opportunity for Tvardi’s primary drug candidate, TTI-101, in the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). InvestingPro analysis reveals 8 additional investment tips for TVRD, available to subscribers.

According to Oppenheimer’s analysis, TTI-101, which is a first-in-class STAT3 inhibitor, has the potential to generate approximately $1.2 billion in peak risk-adjusted sales by the year 2040. This projection is based on the drug’s unique approach and promising interim data from clinical trials. With a current market capitalization of $260 million and an excellent InvestingPro Financial Health Score of 4.56/5, the company appears well-positioned to pursue its development goals.

The recent blinded Phase 2a interim results have indicated that TTI-101 could potentially reverse the progression of IPF. This suggests that it may offer better outcomes compared to existing treatments, positioning it favorably against competitors. Detailed results from this Phase 2a study are anticipated in the second half of 2025 and are expected to serve as a significant milestone for the company. Analyst consensus remains strongly bullish, with price targets ranging from $41 to $55.

In the realm of HCC treatment, TTI-101 is being evaluated for its novel mechanism of action and its potential to work in synergy with the standard of care. The interim data from the Phase 1b/2 trials have shown encouraging signs of this synergy, with comprehensive topline results expected in the first half of 2026.

The coverage initiation by Oppenheimer reflects a positive outlook on Tvardi Therapeutics’ financial stability and its ability to reach key developmental milestones without the immediate need for additional capital.

In other recent news, Cara Therapeutics has announced a definitive merger agreement with Tvardi Therapeutics, with Tvardi becoming a wholly-owned subsidiary of Cara. This merger aims to leverage Tvardi’s approach to targeting STAT3, a key regulator in fibrotic diseases. Cara’s stockholders approved the merger, alongside a reverse stock split, during a Special Meeting, with a significant majority voting in favor. The reverse stock split will consolidate every three shares into one, reducing the number of shares but maintaining the authorized number. This strategic move is part of Cara’s efforts to enhance shareholder value and position the company for future growth.

Additionally, Tvardi Therapeutics has caught the attention of analysts, with BTIG assigning a Buy rating and a $55 price target, highlighting Tvardi’s leading position in developing STAT3 inhibitors. Lucid (NASDAQ:LCID) Capital Markets also initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $42 target, emphasizing TTI-101’s potential in the idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) market. Tvardi is advancing TTI-101 through Phase 2 trials for IPF, with top-line data expected in the second half of 2025. The company is also working on TTI-109, a prodrug of TTI-101, aiming for an Investigational New Drug application later this year. These developments underscore Tvardi’s ongoing efforts to address significant unmet medical needs in fibrosis-driven diseases.

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