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On Tuesday, Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James analyst Buck Horne revised the price target for KB Home (NYSE:KBH), lowering it to $65 from the previous $80, while retaining an Outperform rating on the stock. The adjustment comes in the wake of KB Home’s first-quarter results for fiscal year 2025, which fell short of expectations. Currently trading at $59.09 and near its 52-week low of $58.80, the stock maintains an attractive P/E ratio of 6.78x. Despite the reduction in the price target, Raymond James sees a favorable risk/reward balance for the homebuilder’s shares, which are currently trading at 1.0x tangible book value. According to InvestingPro analysis, KB Home appears undervalued based on its proprietary Fair Value model, with 12 key insights available for subscribers.
KB Home reported a miss in its first-quarter home deliveries, which had been projected in January, and experienced a 17% year-over-year decline in new orders. This decrease occurred despite a 7% increase in year-over-year community count. The broader industry has also seen a sluggish start to the 2025 spring selling season, with buyer confidence waning in February due to rising economic concerns and affordability challenges. Despite these headwinds, KB Home maintains strong financial health with a "GOOD" overall rating from InvestingPro, supported by liquid assets exceeding short-term obligations and a moderate debt level.
However, KB Home responded to the market conditions by reducing base pricing by an average of $15,000 per home, or approximately 3% of the average selling price (ASP), in late February. This proactive pricing strategy led to a sales absorption rate about 40% higher than the first-quarter average over the subsequent five weeks.
While acknowledging the impact of these price adjustments on margins and revenue guidance, the analyst believes KB Home’s actions were judicious and did not significantly undermine the earnings outlook. Raymond James suggests that KB Home’s current valuation already reflects a serious recession scenario, and therefore, maintaining an Outperform rating presents an attractive upside potential.
The analyst concludes that even with lowered estimates at the low end of the revised guidance, KB Home is projected to remain significantly cash flow positive, with an expected double-digit return on equity (ROE) of approximately 11%, and without near-term risk of land impairment.
In other recent news, KB Home reported its first-quarter financial results for fiscal year 2025, revealing earnings per share (EPS) of $1.49 and revenue of $1.39 billion, both of which fell short of analysts’ forecasts of $1.59 for EPS and $1.5 billion for revenue. This performance marked a 5% year-over-year decline in housing revenues and a 9% decrease in home deliveries. Following these results, the company revised its full-year revenue guidance to a range of $6.6 billion to $7.0 billion. Analysts from RBC Capital Markets, Wolfe Research, and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods have adjusted their outlooks for KB Home, with RBC and Wolfe Research lowering their price targets to $63 and $60, respectively, while maintaining their ratings. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods held a Market Perform rating with a $76 price target. The adjustments in price targets reflect concerns over KB Home’s order shortfalls and revised guidance for fiscal year 2025. The company has responded to market challenges by reducing home prices in half of its communities, which has helped stabilize sales rates. Despite these efforts, analysts have expressed skepticism regarding the company’s ability to maintain stable gross margins throughout the year, given the current market conditions.
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