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On Monday, Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James analyst Simon Leopold upgraded Lumentum Holdings Inc . (NASDAQ:LITE) stock rating from Outperform to Strong Buy, simultaneously lowering the price target to $82.00 from $96.00. The revision follows recent meetings at Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)’s GTC and Corning (NYSE:GLW)’s analyst day, which have led the analyst to believe that the market has overreacted to concerns surrounding Co-Packaged Optics (CPO). According to InvestingPro data, LITE’s stock has shown significant volatility, with analysts setting targets between $80 and $136, suggesting substantial upside potential from current levels.
Leopold’s commentary highlighted the firm’s updated and expanded datacom optical model, which now accounts for robust 800G demand, Nvidia’s product roadmap, and emerging CPO/LPO form-factors. The model also includes projections for non-A.I. datacom sales. According to the new model, A.I. backend transceiver sales are expected to reach $22.2 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 30% from 2024. The forecast for A.I. backend sales in 2027 has been revised upward to $7.5 billion from $7.1 billion. InvestingPro data shows Lumentum’s revenue growth at 14.6% in the last twelve months, with a healthy current ratio of 2.67x, indicating strong liquidity to support growth initiatives.
The analyst pointed to Nvidia’s Blackwell order disclosures as a reason to expect an upside to near-term 800G estimates, with a projection of 15 million units in 2025. Additionally, the optical telecom market, which includes wide area network applications such as data center interconnects, is showing signs of recovery. Industrial lasers are also starting to rebound, although recovery trajectories vary across sub-sectors.
With the Optical Fiber Communication (OFC) trade show approaching, and Lumentum shares having faced recent pressure, greater clarity on CPO and the market opportunity is anticipated to act as a positive catalyst for the stock, according to Leopold’s analysis. InvestingPro reveals 16 analysts have revised their earnings upwards for the upcoming period, with the company expected to return to profitability this year. Subscribers can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report for deeper insights into Lumentum’s market position and growth prospects.
In other recent news, Coherent (NYSE:COHR) Corp. has made significant strides with the introduction of its latest products and analyst assessments. The company unveiled the 2x400G-FR4 Lite optical transceiver, designed for AI-driven data centers and high-speed Ethernet networks, emphasizing energy efficiency and compact design. This new module is expected to be available for general release by April 2025. Additionally, Coherent launched the WaveAnalyzer 1500B, an advanced optical spectrum analyzer, which promises enhanced transceiver testing capabilities with superior speed and resolution.
On the analyst front, Raymond James upgraded Coherent’s stock rating to Strong Buy, adjusting the price target to $91.00, citing optimism in the optical communications sector. The upgrade follows insights from industry events and a positive outlook on the demand for 800G solutions. Meanwhile, Jefferies initiated coverage on Coherent with a Buy rating and a $110 price target, highlighting the company’s strong position in the 400G transceiver market and potential for profitability improvement.
These recent developments reflect Coherent’s strategic focus on innovation and market leadership. The company’s advancements in product offerings and favorable analyst ratings underscore its potential for growth in the evolving photonics industry. Investors will likely be keen to monitor Coherent’s progress as it continues to capitalize on industry trends and technological advancements.
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