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On Thursday, RBC Capital Markets adjusted its price target on shares of Nufarm (OTC:NFRMY) Ltd. (NUF:AU) (OTC: NFRMY), bringing it down to AUD3.50 from the previous AUD5.00 while maintaining a Sector Perform rating. The decision follows Nufarm’s reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for the first half of 2025, which saw a 5% decline to $206 million. This figure fell short of RBC and consensus estimates by 11% and 14%, respectively.
The lower earnings were significantly affected by a drop in fish-oil prices, which in turn, impacted the company’s Omega-3 segment earnings. Excluding the approximately $28 million hit from this segment, Nufarm’s EBITDA would have been more consistent with expectations, showing a slight variance of +2% to -2% against RBC and consensus projections.
However, the outlook remains challenging. RBC analysts anticipate that the subdued pricing in the Omega-3 market could persist and potentially exacerbate the earnings and valuation impact in the second half of 2025. This scenario might prompt Nufarm to reconsider its planting strategy for the fiscal year 2025. In light of these factors, RBC has significantly reduced its earnings and valuation estimates for Nufarm by 22% to 40%.
Despite the reduction in the price target, RBC notes that there could be valuation upside at the current levels. Nonetheless, the firm emphasizes that the current lack of visibility into future performance significantly increases the risk profile of the stock, leading them to sustain their Sector Perform rating with a Speculative Risk qualifier.
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